Just watched the @TuckerCarlson segment with Trump interview by @DrMarcSiegel. Takeaway: Trump looks good, his voice is strong, no visible shortness of breath, he's finishing sentences without stopping for air. Mental status and judgment seem unchanged from his usual. (1/9)

Siegel actually did a decent interview – asking questions testing recall, along with others that got at judgment and insight (latter included asking about lessons learned from this experience). I'm not a Trump fan but it's hard to make 25th Amendment case from what we saw. (2/9)
And, while Trump is still not completely out of the woods – there's still a small (<5%) chance of a significant setback – with a patient this stable 8 days into the illness, his most likely course is a relatively uneventful recovery. (3/9)
Did the interview make any news? A little. If Trump is to be believed, he was never short of breath; his main symptoms last Thursday were sore throat and weakness.

He says he wanted to leave the hospital after the second day; his team wanted him to stay for observation. (4/9)
Per Trump, he is off all medications "as of 8 hrs ago." That includes the dexamethasone. Since starting it seems like a clinical toss-up (at best) and Trump did well, stopping it before completing a 10-day course seems prudent – at some point, the risks exceed the benefits. (5/9)
Any tests in hospital? “They tested the lungs, they have incredible equipment….it tested good; initially they said I had some congestion in there…w/ each day it got better."

If he means they found lung congestion on his x-ray, that's more info than we got from Dr Conley (6/9)
How bad is the virus? "It's highly contagious. That's one thing you learn." (Sad if that's how he learned this.) Re: mortality: “Generally you get better...If you look at mortality rate, I think it's up 95 or 85%.” (I'd guess he means survival rate; if so, an overstatement) (7/9)
His final message. "I have great respect for the doctors... I have such respect for the people that have suffered, and my sympathies for the families that have been horribly hurt.” One of the more empathic things I've heard him say. (8/9)
Overall, if he were my patient I would reassure him that he is doing very well, and is highly likely to continue to have a benign clinical course. Given that he had a 5-8% predicted mortality when he was diagnosed, up to ~20% after he was hospitalized, he's a very lucky man.(9/9)

More from Trump

This is mostly right but strikes me as it needing said that I don't think the left or the intelligentsia have the slightest idea how low institutional trust in anything coming from a left mouthpiece is now. Except in-network, the best heuristic is "the opposite of what they said"


If you look at the situation from a predictive models perspective instead of the more rigorous and appropriate (under normal circumstances) "prove your case or gtfo" perspective, trusting the opposite of whatever the left side says has an AMAZING track record, as we know it.

Literally, the best heuristic most people have right now, in terms of how often it gets things right versus *completely* wrong, is "whatever CNN, the NYT, public health officials, and the Democrats said... yeah, the opposite." That is, they're wrong WAY outside of statistics.

They're also not just wrong. They're *completely* wrong, backwards, often transparently covering something up that they don't want known or refuse to believe. This isn't just a legitimation crisis because there's a heuristic: whatever the official left narrative is, is wrong.

There are a few reasons why such a heuristic would be more predictive than not. One of those is conspiracy, and another is mass hysteria with ideological capture. We know at least one of those is happening and have rather strong evidence both are. That makes conspiracy reasonable

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The chorus of this song uses the shlokas taken from Sundarkand of Ramayana.

It is a series of Sanskrit shlokas recited by Jambavant to Hanuman to remind Him of his true potential.

1. धीवर प्रसार शौर्य भरा: The brave persevering one, your bravery is taking you forward.


2. उतसारा स्थिरा घम्भीरा: The one who is leaping higher and higher, who is firm and stable and seriously determined.

3. ुग्रामा असामा शौर्या भावा: He is strong, and without an equal in the ability/mentality to fight

4. रौद्रमा नवा भीतिर्मा: His anger will cause new fears in his foes.

5.विजिटरीपुरु धीरधारा, कलोथरा शिखरा कठोरा: This is a complex expression seen only in Indic language poetry. The poet is stating that Shivudu is experiencing the intensity of climbing a tough peak, and likening

it to the feeling in a hard battle, when you see your enemy defeated, and blood flowing like a rivulet. This is classical Veera rasa.

6.कुलकु थारथिलीथा गम्भीरा, जाया विराट वीरा: His rough body itself is like a sharp weapon (because he is determined to win). Hail this complete

hero of the world.

7.विलयगागनथाला भिकारा, गरज्जद्धरा गारा: The hero is destructive in the air/sky as well (because he can leap at an enemy from a great height). He can defeat the enemy (simply) with his fearsome roar of war.