The NYT amazing report on Trump's post-election insanity helps explain why he has so many almost-certainly-illegal projects around the world.

Over the past 25 years, there has been an astonishing amount of illegal money flowing out of former Soviet Union and...

1/

other highly corrupt economies. Trillions of dollars. Broadly called money-laundering.

The sophisticated oligarchs used top law- and accounting-firms, banks, and big hotels to clean their money.

But there were many hack oligarchs.

2/
Who were too blatantly corrupt, too tied to terror or other bad actors, to use the "legitimate" forms of money-laundering.

Consider Azerbaijan's Anar Mammadov. He spent years and millions of dollars trying to get someone, anyone, in the US to work with him.

3/
Or Indonesia's Hary Tanoe, a man shockingly corrupt and crude even in a shockingly corrupt country.

Or the Tiah family in Malaysia. Or his partner's in Toronto, Panama, etc, etc.

These were very rich losers. They had too much risk to cross over to the legit economy.

4/
Until they met Trump.

The Trump Org, like the White House, did have some good lawyers. They wouldn't touch these deals.

So, Trump brought in Michael Cohen--who is less of a lawyer than Rudy, Lin, Sidney, and Ellis--from a taxi dispatch office in Brooklyn.

5/
And the Trump Org did have experienced real estate execs, but these deals were handled by Don, Jr., and Ivanka.

Trump refused to pay for the barest due diligence but did pay for fig-leaf assurances from pay-to-play "due diligence" firms.

6/
Much like with the election, he made a series of hugely risky and self-destructive decisions, was counseled against them, and then got a bunch of losers to back him up.

He got away with it because America barely prosecutes international white collar crime.

7/
The only reason he didn't get away with this coup (yet) is that people with power and resources had a strong incentive to investigate and stop him.

That has not, yet, happened with his business. (God damn you, Robert S. Mueller).

8/
Investigating the business will be harder.

But it's necessary.

In the end, it will find scenes much like the ones in the NYT story: Trump being told something is illegal, unethical, and risky, and then finding some bottom feeder who will tell him the opposite.

9/end

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE


2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less.
https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n


3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)


4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3


5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)