Model Portfolio 3

Time Horizon 3 years or earlier ~ Depends on if the stock performs significantly well in faster time. Review of business performance important every quarter.

This portfolio is suitable for aggressive investors who believe in risk taking and look for growth

Thread - How to spot a potential multibagger

Multiple fundamental parameters however we cannot be rigid on any of these parameters.

Be flexible to interpret things from bigger picture point of view.

Input 1 ~ No doubt on business survival

Come whatever event (health crisis, economic bubbles, economic recessions, political events, etc.), there should not be any doubt on business survival.

Earlier it used to be only food companies into this category, but now there are many.

Input 2 ~ Visible & sustainable growth potential

At any point of time, we can think with a certain common sense approach that if management wants, there can be a sustainable growth at any point of time.

Obviously this growth may come thru innovation, optimization, etc.

Input 3 ~ Management has vision towards growth

Management should be forward looking, should be able to read into future to build right growth avenues, should be considerate towards every stakeholder.

In addition management should be ethical & should have good social image too.

Input 4 ~ Promoter stake

There should be a reasonable skin in the game from promoter.

If in case there is a low promoter stake, then promoter should increase stake at every possible opportunity.

Also pledging should either be zero or minimal.

Since the debate on 'What is quality' is never ending, here is a thread on few points that I feel useful in judging if the company is a quality company or not.

Have a look at the entire thread & please add more useful points from your end.

Please RT for wider participation.

Quality company - Point 1

- Management has never been into any corporate governance issue so far & sounds so clean that it may never get into any corporate governance issue in future too.

Quality company - Point 2

- Besides corporate governance & beyond the company, management has never been into any wrong doings in the public domain, viz. any fraud or criminal activity.

Quality company - Point 3

- Management doesn't come too often on media, into investor meets, meet 1-1 with investors.

Such management focus on business rather than investors.

Quality company - Point 4

- Management doesn't grow business too aggressively.

Conservative management with a milestone based approach helps better in long run.

Peter Lynch is a great investment manager of all time. He is famous for introduction of PEG. (P/E growth)

According to Mr. Lynch the faster the company grows, the higher the P/E ratio you should pay for that company

Here is a Thread - Peter Lynch thoughts & my interpretations.

1. Investing is fun, exciting & dangerous if you don’t do any work

Fun becoz we tend to learn so many things

Exciting becoz it give great moments of celebration because of unimaginable wealth

Dangerous becoz it can be addictive due to greed & people may start finding shortcuts

2. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

Study businesses, apply common sense and invest into something which you understand.

No need to adventure & no need to be part of anything or everything.

3. The stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

Stay away from noise & crowd to come out as a winner.

4. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing

The underlying entity of a stock is business. Choose to ignore everything else, but never ignore to study business.

Company includes few more things in addition to business like management, etc.

Secret towards being successful - Simple yet powerful rules.

Create your own luck.

Thread - Take a printout & read it again & again in your leisure.

1. Invest some part of your income in yourself

It’s only when you invest in something that you have the motivation to make it happen.

You are determined by

~ The quality of work you’ll produce,
~ The level of happiness you’ll have.
~ The quality of leaders you build

2. Invest at Least 80 Percent of Your “Off” Time into Learning

The world’s most successful people are intense learners. They are hard readers. They know that what they know determines how well they see the world.

Stop consuming junk media.

Read right & build your own content.

3. Don’t Work for Money, Work to Learn. Money is an outcome.

Wealthy & happy people work to learn. Unsuccessful & unhappy people work primarily for money.

Only 20 percent of your energy should be spent doing your actual work. Spend rest on learning, improving self, & resting.

4. Don’t Learn for Fun, Learn to Create Value. Value attracts everyone.

It takes wisdom to determine what you should learn, why you should learn it, and when you should learn it.

Learn, Relearn, Erase, Learn, Relearn. Be dynamic.

Find your own content.

#StockMarket - While there are #Multibaggers there can be #Multifailures as well. Here is a thread on key mistakes that may happen during the journey. I have been thru all these mistakes myself.....

1. Leverage can be key mistake that usually happen either when we get carried away in euphoria or are finding shortcuts during early part of journey. Even if you need to take leverage, it should be based on your net worth, risk profile and in right stocks.
#NoShortcuts

2. Selling too early just because it has run up too much too fast. Till there is a visibility of business potential and company growth path, one should ride the growth as maximum as possible.
#StayPut

3. Buying too late just because of noise / momentum and fear of missing out. Never ignore the valuations, business potential and company fundamentals while going with any suggestions. Always do your own due diligence.
#CutTheNoise

4. Buying too big too early and then selling while patience is being tested. Build the position towards upside especially for any new stock finding. Build onto the conviction with a visible growth in numbers.

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

While watching the GameStop stuff has been mildly hilarious (I mean who doesn't like watching the financial elite squirm?) it's pretty clear that a whole bunch of folk have convinced themselves this is ACTUALLY some kind of revolutionary activity. It isn't. 1/

Sure, it's highlighted yet another way in which the bastards profiteer but that's about it, stick it on the pile with the fifty other pro tips to keep the poor, well poor... It's todays banter and tho a few folks might have egg on their faces, literally nothing will happen. 2/

GameStop's three largest shareholders have earned £1.5bn+ during this. They sit at the top of some 200 institutions which are rolling. Meanwhile the ersatz rebels are now watching the bubble, realising there is profit to be made and having a wibble. 3/

No doubt some TRULY believe they are taking part in some kind of revolution but frankly it's utterly absurd and the vast majority are in it for the lulz and to cash in quick.

I'm sorry to tell you this, but you don't own GameStop.

4/

The reality is, the scale of the economic disparity and corruption is simply vast. Billionaires loosing a few millions means nothing. They buy one less yacht and you continue to live meal to meal.

The "Free Market" changes a few systems and the abuse continues. 5/

#NIFTY

Bearish engulfing on monthly or bullish harami on Weekly , which one will play out?

Outlook for the week Jan 2 - 6, 2022.

THREAD: Deconstructing NIFTY on 5 different TF's.

#NIFTY

1. Monthly TF:

• Although the structure in monthly TF is of HH-HL, December monthly candle is a more of a bearish engulfing.

• However it is exactly at the support

• 17800-18000 looks like a strong support.

#NIFTY

2. Weekly TF:

• 17800- 1800 used to be a resistance in April & August 2022.

• However post BO of those levels, they might act as an immediate support.

• Current weekly candle is closer to the support (erstwhile resistance)

#NIFTY

3. Daily TF:

• After a sharp vertical fall, we expected a buying momentum

• Also Nifty filled the Gap.

• Strong support at 17800

#NIFTY

4. Hourly TF:

Moving within the rising channel, albiet the channel is quite steep.

This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader

Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.

This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.