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1/ 8 #Tesla ships have sailed to Europe🇪🇺 this quarter, and it's unlikely that there will be more.
With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.
As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
4/ Out of the 12* Tesla ships this quarter, 2* were from Shanghai, leaving 10 from Fremont. Last year there were 16.
Tesla US sales should be booming, or there is some other problem. Some might whisper "demand".
5/ * It's possible that one more ship will come from Shanghai to Europe, with Q1 delivery. They could have sent ships to APAC or ME from Shanghai, but in that case we've missed that, and due to a high RHD ratio and tax reasons, it's unlikely.
With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
1/ \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa weekend update.
— fly4dat (@fly4dat) November 14, 2020
TL;DR: #Tesla will likely lag 19Q4 by a wide margin.
There have been 8 ships to Europe for ~28.2k in 19Q4 and 6.2k in opening inventory, so $TSLA could deliver a record 31.8k M3's.
This year they are at 6 ships with a 7th being loaded.$TSLA $TSLAQ https://t.co/xJ31lqvAHN
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.
As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
4/ Out of the 12* Tesla ships this quarter, 2* were from Shanghai, leaving 10 from Fremont. Last year there were 16.
Tesla US sales should be booming, or there is some other problem. Some might whisper "demand".
5/ * It's possible that one more ship will come from Shanghai to Europe, with Q1 delivery. They could have sent ships to APAC or ME from Shanghai, but in that case we've missed that, and due to a high RHD ratio and tax reasons, it's unlikely.
Every now and then, the old lie, "Martin Eberhard founded Tesla, Elon Musk stole it from him!" crops up.
Facts matter, so let's break down the actual timeline.
'94: Musk does a summer internship developing advanced capacitors in hopes of being able to use them for EVs.
'94: AC Propulsion (Gage, Cocconi) release the first version of the AC-150 powertrain.
'94: Musk founds Zip2 along with Kimbal and Greg Kouri. Musk's investment was the PC.
Fall, '94: Musk moves to California to attend Stanford for postgraduate physics studies, but immediately drops out due to the internet boom and the rising success of his company Zip2.
'97: Gage starts tzero construction. Cocconi further develops the powertrain.
'97: Eberhard and Tarpenning cofound NuvoMedia, an e-book company
Spring '98: Straubel receives BS in Energy Systems Engineering from Stanford
Feb. '99: Compaq purchases Zip2 for $305M. Elon earns $22M.
Nov '99: Musk founds
Jan '00: Gemstar-TV acquires NuvoMedia from Eberhard and Tarpenning for $187M, making them likewise wealthy.
Mar '00: * Straubel receives M.S. in Energy Engineering from Stanford. * https://t.co/FaUDDd5T0X merges with Confinity to form PayPal. * The dotcom bubble peaks.
Facts matter, so let's break down the actual timeline.
'94: Musk does a summer internship developing advanced capacitors in hopes of being able to use them for EVs.
'94: AC Propulsion (Gage, Cocconi) release the first version of the AC-150 powertrain.
'94: Musk founds Zip2 along with Kimbal and Greg Kouri. Musk's investment was the PC.
Fall, '94: Musk moves to California to attend Stanford for postgraduate physics studies, but immediately drops out due to the internet boom and the rising success of his company Zip2.
'97: Gage starts tzero construction. Cocconi further develops the powertrain.
'97: Eberhard and Tarpenning cofound NuvoMedia, an e-book company
Spring '98: Straubel receives BS in Energy Systems Engineering from Stanford
Feb. '99: Compaq purchases Zip2 for $305M. Elon earns $22M.
Nov '99: Musk founds
Jan '00: Gemstar-TV acquires NuvoMedia from Eberhard and Tarpenning for $187M, making them likewise wealthy.
Mar '00: * Straubel receives M.S. in Energy Engineering from Stanford. * https://t.co/FaUDDd5T0X merges with Confinity to form PayPal. * The dotcom bubble peaks.
