1/ 8 #Tesla ships have sailed to Europe🇪🇺 this quarter, and it's unlikely that there will be more.

With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ

2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.

As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
4/ Out of the 12* Tesla ships this quarter, 2* were from Shanghai, leaving 10 from Fremont. Last year there were 16.

Tesla US sales should be booming, or there is some other problem. Some might whisper "demand".
5/ * It's possible that one more ship will come from Shanghai to Europe, with Q1 delivery. They could have sent ships to APAC or ME from Shanghai, but in that case we've missed that, and due to a high RHD ratio and tax reasons, it's unlikely.
6/ They could also send ships from the East Coast or cars by train from Shanghai to Europe, but those are costly options and I don't see the demand for those cars.
7/ Without many more ships from the East, unless US sales ends up to be above the previous record, it's obvious that Tesla isn't production constrained in Fremont. END

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I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):


The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹


Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹


References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹