(i) Selecting the sectors :
• Sectors which are unaffected due to any slowdown or in other words, non-cyclical sectors should be preferred.
• Which are having good demand of their products / tailwinds in their favour. IT/Pharma is the recent example.
(2/n)
• Govt. policies in favour of the sector by imposing any duties or providing incentives to the industry.
• Always check for proxy plays, Example :
- Realty boom - Building materials, Appliances, Cement (Proxy)
• Sector which is the need of the hour - Renewables.
(3/n)
(ii) Selecting the companies :
• 2 ways to select the companies :
- Based on past financials / historical data
- Estimating forward valuations
• By analysing past data, you can identify the company which performed the best, can be classified as the leader.
(4/n)
• Companies with consistent higher OPM, RoCE, RoE and OCF conversion are considered good for investing.
• For example, leaders in various sectors :
- Diagnostic - Dr Lal Pathlabs
- Amines - Alkyl Amines
- Cement - Shree Cement
(5/n)
• While analysing past data, we can use this formula :
- Sales Growth (5 years) > 15%
- RoCE > 15% or RoE > 12%
- Net Debt/Equity < 0.1
(6/n)
• Estimating forward valuations : This is a very tricky part of selecting the stocks.
• Based on recent quarterly earnings and management's guidance, you will have to project the future earnings.
• In this case, sectorial tailwinds must be in favour of the company.
(7/n)
• While forecasting the valuations, please keep a note on :
- OPM in improving trend (last few quarters)
- Avoid capital intensive sectors (such as metal)
- Management guidance and their execution
- Sectorial tailwinds in favour
(8/n)
(iii) How to review and decide :
• Check the quarterly earnings and attend con-calls.
• Review their Half-Yearly and Yearly results where company posts balance sheet along with CFO statement.
• Compare the guidance given with what they delivered.
(9/n)
• While checking B/S or CFO statement, Do check :
- Trade Receivables - Significant increase - Negative
- Cash + Investment Value - Increase - Positive
- OCF conversion from EBITDA - High - Positive
- Working capital cycle & management
(10/n)
- Higher CWIP - Capex - Positive in longer run
- Contingent liabilities - High - Negative
- Net fixed asset turnover (NFAT)
- RoIC and RoCE.
• Invest in the businesses which can generate higher RoCE and OCF from their businesses.
(11/n)
(iv) Perfect time to exit / pyramiding :
"Always remember : When everyone is greedy, be fearful and when everyone is fearful, be greedy."
Track the business, valuation metrics & decide.
I hope this thread will add some value to your analysis.
Thanks for reading😊
(12/12)