How to select stocks for your long term portfolio :

A Thread 🧵⤵️

(i) Selecting the sectors
(ii) Selecting the companies
(iii) How to review and decide
(iv) Perfect time to exit/pyramiding

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(1/n)

(i) Selecting the sectors :

• Sectors which are unaffected due to any slowdown or in other words, non-cyclical sectors should be preferred.

• Which are having good demand of their products / tailwinds in their favour. IT/Pharma is the recent example.

(2/n)
• Govt. policies in favour of the sector by imposing any duties or providing incentives to the industry.

• Always check for proxy plays, Example :

- Realty boom - Building materials, Appliances, Cement (Proxy)

• Sector which is the need of the hour - Renewables.

(3/n)
(ii) Selecting the companies :

• 2 ways to select the companies :

- Based on past financials / historical data
- Estimating forward valuations

• By analysing past data, you can identify the company which performed the best, can be classified as the leader.

(4/n)
• Companies with consistent higher OPM, RoCE, RoE and OCF conversion are considered good for investing.

• For example, leaders in various sectors :

- Diagnostic - Dr Lal Pathlabs
- Amines - Alkyl Amines
- Cement - Shree Cement

(5/n)
• While analysing past data, we can use this formula :

- Sales Growth (5 years) > 15%
- RoCE > 15% or RoE > 12%
- Net Debt/Equity < 0.1

(6/n)
• Estimating forward valuations : This is a very tricky part of selecting the stocks.

• Based on recent quarterly earnings and management's guidance, you will have to project the future earnings.

• In this case, sectorial tailwinds must be in favour of the company.

(7/n)
• While forecasting the valuations, please keep a note on :

- OPM in improving trend (last few quarters)
- Avoid capital intensive sectors (such as metal)
- Management guidance and their execution
- Sectorial tailwinds in favour

(8/n)
(iii) How to review and decide :

• Check the quarterly earnings and attend con-calls.

• Review their Half-Yearly and Yearly results where company posts balance sheet along with CFO statement.

• Compare the guidance given with what they delivered.

(9/n)
• While checking B/S or CFO statement, Do check :

- Trade Receivables - Significant increase - Negative
- Cash + Investment Value - Increase - Positive
- OCF conversion from EBITDA - High - Positive
- Working capital cycle & management

(10/n)
- Higher CWIP - Capex - Positive in longer run
- Contingent liabilities - High - Negative
- Net fixed asset turnover (NFAT)
- RoIC and RoCE.

• Invest in the businesses which can generate higher RoCE and OCF from their businesses.

(11/n)
(iv) Perfect time to exit / pyramiding :

"Always remember : When everyone is greedy, be fearful and when everyone is fearful, be greedy."

Track the business, valuation metrics & decide.

I hope this thread will add some value to your analysis.

Thanks for reading😊

(12/12)

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MDZS is laden with buddhist references. As a South Asian person, and history buff, it is so interesting to see how Buddhism, which originated from India, migrated, flourished & changed in the context of China. Here's some research (🙏🏼 @starkjeon for CN insight + citations)

1. LWJ’s sword Bichen ‘is likely an abbreviation for the term 躲避红尘 (duǒ bì hóng chén), which can be translated as such: 躲避: shunning or hiding away from 红尘 (worldly affairs; which is a buddhist teaching.) (
https://t.co/zF65W3roJe) (abbrev. TWX)

2. Sandu (三 毒), Jiang Cheng’s sword, refers to the three poisons (triviṣa) in Buddhism; desire (kāma-taṇhā), delusion (bhava-taṇhā) and hatred (vibhava-taṇhā).

These 3 poisons represent the roots of craving (tanha) and are the cause of Dukkha (suffering, pain) and thus result in rebirth.

Interesting that MXTX used this name for one of the characters who suffers, arguably, the worst of these three emotions.

3. The Qian kun purse “乾坤袋 (qián kūn dài) – can be called “Heaven and Earth” Pouch. In Buddhism, Maitreya (मैत्रेय) owns this to store items. It was believed that there was a mythical space inside the bag that could absorb the world.” (TWX)