BC SESSION
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Sunday #Pharma Brew!

Attended amazing session by @AdityaKhemka5 and have compiled key understandings and takeaways in a small thread!🧵

Thanks @AdityaKhemka5 sir for such insights!

 1/ Pharma Industry

-Only sector where India has global competitive advantage, companies in this sector are one of the best in the world with ace qualities.

-Global pharma market is $1100 billion.
-#US market accounts for $500 billion (5% population covers 40-45% of total markt)
-#China is a $150 billion market (15% population covers 15% of total market)

-#India is only $20 billion compared to strong global pharma market (15% population covers only 2% of total market). This leaves a huge #growth.
2/ Indian Pharma

-Costs are cheaper here along with conducive costs policies coupled with govt schemes like PLI, etc.

-Under #AyushmanBharat 10-15 Cr families will be taken to 50-60 Crs.

-Market is growing at 8-10% in which organized market is gaining m'share at stronger pace.
-85% of diagnostic market is unorganized & 80% of pharma market is unorganized.

-India is most unorganized (30-40%) is unorganized with 80% of patient population going to private segment.
3/ How to Analyze?

-If we've 100cr sales, break them into US & India

-India is at 40% ebitda bcz it is a #branded generic mrkt
-Prescription here says brand name not drug/API.
-This is similar to FMCG, you own brand as well as price
-This is why India is able to charge premium.
-Indian biz contributes higher margin due to branded products preference.

-Indian business has strong cash inflows which earn huge interest income due to FMCG nature and operating leverage starts to kick in, Depreciation is also lower due to strong regulatory structure.
-US, you are not allowed to brand the product.
-They all have to sell by API name, eg. paracetamol
-So if you are in America you will buy medicine of lowest price unlike India.
-M'share goes to lowest priced co.
-Doctor prescribes paracetomal not crocin/calpol etc.
-Pharmacy gives the option of the drug companies & patient chooses the lowest price which makes it the commodity market like Steel or Cement.
-That's why margins are lower.

-So in US key point is not brand, but pricing point.
-Now the company which operates in both countries, US biz losses are overcome by Indian biz.

-And if we anticipate (US loss*20 multiple), loss will increase loss every next year.

-Negative US commodity like Pharma biz should be valued at 0 and rate your valuation at Branded biz
4/ Industry So Far

-In 2009-2015, US was able to take price up in commodity like biz, margins and multiples went up.

-In 2015-2016 when you make such returns, you invite competition. Prices, margins & multiples crashed. Losses from US.
-US has drug shortages bcz no company wants to sell due to lowest prices. Supply went out.

-Many International companies have filed for bankruptcy due to negative ROE as they have high cost of production & low product pric.

-Now pricing taking up,better ROE since last 6 month
-Large cash today comes from US

-Now biz are growing bcz US pharma losses have stopped coupled with growing Indian branded biz
5/ Best Time to Invest?

-Best time is earnings and valuation at the bottom
-Second best time is valuation at average and earnings at the bottom
-ROE should improve from here on due to increase in prices due to supply shortage
6/ API Story

-API story is secular

-China exports 40 billion whereas India exports 4 billion.

-Not all API companies are good, check the factors and details about customers, finished products etc

-Story of API will take time, definitely a structural play.
7/ Sustainable Valuations?

-High US commodity revenue generating business may not be sustainable.

-Give low multiple to US commodity business and high to low segment with high ROE
8/ USFDA

-USFDA creates problem mainly with Indian plants bcz people dont care about govt rules in general sense here so how would they be able to take serious measures in their Pharma plants.
-Why small companies dont have problems with USFDA:
because small plants and easier setups have small scope for errors compared to large plants, more people etc

-Quality of drugs is phenomenal by Indian manufacturers at this cost.
-Problem lies when Indian players use shortcuts to manufacture rather than following the process.

-Secular biz and Branded biz are same things.
9/ Keeping a check

-Make friends with local pharmacies- which brands, why these brands, question your friends & families?

-Identify good brands & look at secular & commodity stories.
10/ What to look?

-In Indian biz look at companies which has strong branding & in commodity like US biz look at Cost competitive advantages.

You May Also Like

\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8I Support Our Military & Law Enforcement\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸I Support Our Milita...
@TheWiseOwl_AZ
1. There are more people added on the list of arrests and executions of famous people but no further intel is available at this time.

ARRESTS and EXECUTIONS OF FAMOUS PEOPLE 2020 UPDATED
Explanation of the latest military tribunal arrests and executions of famous people in 2020.

2. The tribunals are arresting these people in plain clothes. We saw the Obama’s arrest, although we didn’t know it was an arrest at the time. The arrest was done nonchalantly so as to not get noticed by the public.
All arrests of these famous people were done this way.

3. If the person is convicted of child sex trafficking, crimes against humanity or treason, they will be executed.
If the person arrested has evidence on someone else to help their prosecution, or is willing to help Trump, & they want to cooperate, they may be allowed to do so.

4. A sentence of execution down to life in prison may be accepted if their evidence is worth anything.
When a plea deal is done, the defendant must present evidence they have to make their sentence lighter. This information is given to the prosecution, defense, and to the judge.

5. If evidence is accepted, they are presented the plea deal. They will have to make a guilty plea to the crime with a video confession & written statement. That is how all plea deals work.

All famous people arrested were either treasonous or involved in satanic worship rituals.
CRIME
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
शमशान में जब महर्षि दधीचि के मांसपिंड का दाह संस्कार हो रहा था तो उनकी पत्नी अपने पति का वियोग सहन नहीं कर पायी और पास में ही स्थित विशाल पीपल वृक्ष के कोटर में अपने तीन वर्ष के बालक को रख के स्वयं चिता पे बैठ कर सती हो गयी ।इस प्रकार ऋषी दधीचि और उनकी पत्नी की मुक्ति हो गयी।


परन्तु पीपल के कोटर में रखा बालक भूख प्यास से तड़पने लगा। जब कुछ नहीं मिला तो वो कोटर में पड़े पीपल के गोदों (फल) को खाकर बड़ा होने लगा। कालान्तर में पीपल के फलों और पत्तों को खाकर बालक का जीवन किसी प्रकार सुरक्षित रहा।

एक दिन देवर्षि नारद वहां से गुजर रहे थे ।नारद ने पीपल के कोटर में बालक को देख कर उसका परिचय मांगा -
नारद बोले - बालक तुम कौन हो?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चहता हूँ ।
नारद - तुम्हारे जनक कौन हैं?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चाहता हूँ ।

तब नारद ने आँखें बन्द कर ध्यान लगाया ।


तत्पश्चात आश्चर्यचकित हो कर बालक को बताया कि 'हे बालक! तुम महान दानी महर्षि दधीचि के पुत्र हो । तुम्हारे पिता की अस्थियों का वज्रास्त्र बनाकर ही देवताओं ने असुरों पर विजय पायी थी।तुम्हारे पिता की मृत्यु मात्र 31 वर्ष की वय में ही हो गयी थी'।

बालक - मेरे पिता की अकाल मृत्यु का क्या कारण था?
नारद - तुम्हारे पिता पर शनिदेव की महादशा थी।
बालक - मेरे उपर आयी विपत्ति का कारण क्या था?
नारद - शनिदेव की महादशा।
इतना बताकर देवर्षि नारद ने पीपल के पत्तों और गोदों को खाकर बड़े हुए उस बालक का नाम पिप्पलाद रखा और उसे दीक्षित किया।
ALL
Advertisement
antifa.drone
antifa.drone
@antifa_drone
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
TRADING
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE UNTOLD TALE OF THE LESSER KNOWN WARRIORS:JOGRAJ GURJAR & RAMPYARI GURJAR AND HOW DID THEY DEFEAT THE CRUELEST ISLAMIC INVADER, TIMUR LANG.

Timur Lang, was the founder of Timurid Empire. He was born in April 1336 CE, somewhere in central asia.


During his reign, he conquered Persia, Egypt, Central Asia and emerged as the most powerful and heinous ruler. He was a religious fanatic like the rest of the Islamic invaders who tried to invade India.

Timur Lang decided to invade India in 1398 as he heard about India's splendid wealth and had a desire to conquer India which his ancestor Genghis Khan couldn't do.


After Firoz Shah's demise in1388, Delhi Sultanate was in a state of political turmoil.During this time, Timur sent his grandson Pir Mohammad to attack Indian front. He invaded Multan&was able to defeat Iqbal Khan's brother but when he met with resistance,he asked help from Timur.


Iqbal Khan secured his hold on Delhi under Muhammad Tughluq after Firoz Shah died.
Timur provided the required back-up to his grandson with 100000 men approx. Timur sacked and plundered all the cities coming in his way &later in October 1398 reunited with his grandson.
ALL
Aron Hyman
Aron Hyman
@aron_hyman
THREAD: The following tweets are for the purposes of stories that will appear in Sunday Times Daily. The videos and images depicted may be upsetting but are deemed to be in the public interest. This is the story of the Ayanda "Borhey" Mtila as far as we were able to verify it.


On 13 October Mtila as defacto overlord of the Boko Harram gang, allegedly carried out his penultimate cash-in-transit robbery. Sources say he sustained a head wound in a shootout with security guards. Some friends believe he was killed by a fellow

He died two days later, on 15 October, after allegedly being in a coma for more than a day. His funeral was a spectacle, held on Nyanga Sports fields on 24 October and attended by hundreds of people. Sources say it was made possible by Paarl businessman Lukhanyo "Spur" Mangena.
CRIME