Thread: Some thoughts as we go into the re-election of Trump. About 20% of the country is hard-core leftist. These people would love to see America become a communist dictatorship, and they’re silly enough to think it will benefit them.

But that leaves 80% of the country that is NOT hard core leftist. Of that 80%, another 10% is hard core Democrat. They’re going to vote for Biden no matter what we find out about his corruption, because they’re willing to sacrifice the country for their progressive vision.
That leaves 70% of the country that isn’t irredeemable. Of that 70%, 20% will normally vote Democrat, because, well, their fathers did or because the media has them convinced that GOP is evil (and Dems are either not or less evil) or just because. But they can be swayed.
And a lot of swaying has been going on. Between the riots, and the anti-American posturing of Dem politicians, $2 trillion “health” plans, banning oil production, and other craziness, a LOT of swaying has been going on. Gays, blacks, Hispanics, all have been migrating to Trump.
Mind you, some of them still won’t be swayed. They’ll either reluctantly pull the lever for Biden or they’ll stay home. We’re seeing some of that staying home factor in the voting numbers coming in from various states. The rest will vote for Trump.
In 2016 128 million people voted. This year, the vote totals are surpassing previous years by quite a bit. I think SOME of that is normal election day voters voting early because of COVID. Some of it is people who have never voted before voting for the first time.
I expect the national vote total to surpass 140 million this year. I expect Trump will get 80 million votes or more. IOW, Trump will get about 55% of the vote or more. Typically Democrat states will flip red. Red state votes will overwhelmingly be for Trump.
And that overwhelming wave of votes will swamp the down-ballot races as well. The GOP will increase its majority in the Senate and become the majority in the House. I don’t track individual races, so I’m not prepared to predict any individual races.
There are approximately 220 million registered voters in the US. If 140 million of them vote, voter turnout will be 63%, which is a record. But Trump is in the record-setting business as we all know. This year will shatter the records and reconfigure America for the future.

More from Politics

My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."

Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016."
https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh


"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."

Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”

My conclusion:

You May Also Like

MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit


Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in


1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only


2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold