After my face2face received many request on making video on Data Analysis in Excel.
Tanking first step in that direction made a small video on how to do data Analysis in excel.
what you will learn?
1. Thought process,
2. How to get EOD data
3.

for positional straddle - i prefer monthly expiry [because of higher premium and comfortable to manage monthly options]
for positional strangle/IC - i prefer weekly expiry [as it is easy to get 15 points every week then getting 60 points in whole month]
views are welcome..

@vivekthebaria Fully agree.I work based on similar calculation
1. Generate some return from investing funds in liquid, nifteebees,stocks
2. Pledging it - use for option trading - even with 10 points per week can- get 28% p.a.
3. Once u do this consistently. Next step, how to improve returns.

Rule based Option selling video now uploaded on our youtube

Story of this week:
Gap pe gap.. gap pe gap.. milta hai.
lekin entry nahi milti

Most risky position of option selling is ovenight straddle/strangle as we carry risk of black swan event.
Lets try to find the solution can we mitigate or reduce this risk?

[1/n]

Will try to explain with 24th Feb 22 gap down [3.2%] how the strategy wise impact looks like. assumed cap 25L

1⃣ say we deploy full capital i.e. for 1.6L 1 lot we trade. attached pic shows impact on various strategies. in straddle we lost highest 8.5% of cap,
[2/n]

in strangle lost in range of 2.4 - 2% .
in iron-fly loss of 2% &
iron condor [with 200 points hedge] 0.5%

Now, these numbers can be on much higher side if gap is bigger or say circuit. This assumes we exit at open - if we stay till close numbers are worst.

[3/n]

2⃣ now lets reduce position size take 1 lot per 2 Lac or 2.5 La... bot files attached

by doing this we reduce impact of naked position below 6% for straddle & below 1.5% for strangles
same time, ironfly & iron condor impact down to 1.15% & 0.3% respectively

[4/n]

3⃣ now lets see impact if we trade 1 lot every 5 lacs.
impact of strangles and iron condors is with in limit on overall capital [< 0.75%]

idea is to chose your battle wisely.

to sum-up:
1⃣ Prefer hedged strategies [ironfly/IC (with closer hedges)] as compared to naked

[5/n]

A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/

Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/

Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

4/

Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

5/

In NSE, 99.6% of the trading is done in derivatives.

But most of those traders don't know how to lower costs and increase returns.

Here's a breakdown on Options Synthetics: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

To become a very good trader, we need a strong understanding of options and Futures with their payoff graphs.

Most people have no clarity regarding synthetics & are just too confused.

Let's begin understanding synthetics & how they can help us trade with a clear understanding!

Synthetics are formed by the mixture/combinations of any two of the following three.

1. Calls
2. Puts
3. Futures/Stocks

You don't even need to touch futures/stocks. Whatever kind of payoff graph you want, you can get via options only.

Fut buy + Put buy= Call buy
Ft buy + Call sell = Put sell
Ft sell + Call buy = Put Buy
Ft sell + Put sell = Call sell

Ft buy = Call Buy + Put Sell
Fut sell = Put Buy + Call Sell

Know this very well as this is a must to know.

There are four advantages to trade via synthetics.

Also, we'll look at 3 problems and 4 myths about strategies.

Let's begin, by looking at the advantages:

#Knowledge
#Options
Ever wondered y gamma is the enemy of straddle / strangle sellers and what it means?

Presume readers are aware of option Greeks meaning...

To understand , first ...

Relationship between delta, gamma, theta and option premium.
....

....

Theta + (int Rate x Underlying price x Delta) + ( 0.5 x variance of underlying x Underlying price x Underlying Price x Gamma ) = Int rate x Option premium.

Strangle and straddles are delta neutral setup;For a delta neutral setup, the second term becomes zero; Hence,
...

....

Theta +
(0.5 x variance of UL x UL price x Underlying price x Gamma)
= Int rate x option premium

Straddle and strangles have typically zero delta at initiation; they also have positive theta, meaning they gain over time assuming other components of option r constant ..

...
In a delta neutral portfolio, if theta is largely +ve , Gamma will be -ve by a large extent to satisfy the above relation mathematically, which means that as expiry nears the strangles and straddles will have large -ve gamma; This is wat u see traders telling gamma effect.