ICYMI, public health officials fear community transmission of B.1.1.7 (the "UK variant") is underway in Ontario.

I'll dissect each piece of worrying news from this story.

1. Simcoe Muskoka has so far reported 3 positive tests in individuals *with no known links* to the massive B.1.1.7 outbreak at Roberta Place LTC.

Two of those are linked to separate outbreaks of their own (a different LTC and a mental health hospital). Testing underway.
2. Of the 225 cases at Roberta Place, 100+ are confirmed or preliminary + for B.1.1.7.

42 household contacts of ppl linked to the outbreak are also COVID+. Public health unit is worried about keeping cases (which are all likely B.1.1.7) from rippling further into the community.
3. A case in Kingston area who tested positive for COVID "several weeks ago" was just discovered to be B.1.1.7. That person travelled to Simcoe Muskoka, but had not travelled internationally, according to the local health unit.

https://t.co/81h7PtyNx2
4. Overall, Public Health Ontario counts 47 B.1.1.7 cases as of yesterday -- these are only the ones confirmed thru full genome sequencing. Preliminary screening tests not included (yesterday's 99 in Simcoe Muskoka, for example).

Here's a breakdown by health unit courtesy PHO:
Side note: My story from 3 days ago (three years in COVID time) on why scientists say we more genomic sequencing and screening, faster turnaround, and better policies to stifle the spread of extra-contagious variants like B.1.1.7:

https://t.co/87Czw5uYRD )
5. Simcoe Muskoka's top public health official Dr. Charles Gardner, who is also on the province's public health measures table, said:

“If it isn’t spreading readily in our community now, it may very well do so in the near future."

@BogochIsaac: "The horse is out of the barn."
Gardner warned B.1.1.7 could quickly overwhelm dropping case numbers in Ontario, making school re-opening difficult & undermining vaccination efforts (especially combined with vaccine supply shortages).

So what do we do now?
The experts I have spoken to agree with this @bruce_arthur column: no one is *opposed* to border measures, but they will not stop the spread of B.1.1.7 alone. Too late for that.

Bogoch: “There’s no magic, right? We know how to control this."

https://t.co/0qSObJike5
My colleague @JacquesGallant reported on the possibility of restricting travel between provinces.

Dr. Gardner also spoke about restricting travel *inside* the province, between communities -- which he says would be controversial but worked in Australia.

https://t.co/0eViOe7ifT
We will likely get more positive tests for variants of concern in the coming days as the results of a PHO point-prevalence study trickle in: ALL ~2,500 COVID positive test samples from Jan 20 are being screened + sequenced for variants of concern.

Stay tuned.
Okay well it's been 10 minutes since I posted this, so obviously I already have two updates to report:

- Now 85 secondary contacts from Roberta Place (up from the 42). h/t @LapointeShaw
- Nine of York Region's 15 B.1.1.7 cases acquired in community:

https://t.co/tZWTewVFaR

More from Health

No-regret #hydrogen:
Charting early steps for H₂ infrastructure in Europe.

👉Summary of conclusions of a new study by @AgoraEW @AFRY_global @Ma_Deutsch @gnievchenko (1/17)
https://t.co/YA50FA57Em


The idea behind this study is that future hydrogen demand is highly uncertain and we don’t want to spend tens of billions of euros to repurpose a network which won’t be needed. For instance, hydrogen in ground transport is a hotly debated topic
https://t.co/RlnqDYVzpr (2/17)

Similar things can be said about heat. 40% of today’s industrial natural gas use in the EU goes to heat below 100°C and therefore is within range of electric heat pumps – whose performance factors far exceed 100%. (3/17)


Even for higher temperatures, a range of power-to-heat (PtH) options can be more energy-efficient than hydrogen and should be considered first. Available PtH technologies can cover all temperature levels needed in industrial production (e.g. electric arc furnace: 3500°C). (4/17)


In our view, hydrogen use for feedstock and chemical reactions is the only inescapable source of industrial hydrogen demand in Europe that does not lend itself to electrification. Examples include ammonia, steel, and petrochemical industries. (5/17)
🚨Important changes to lockdown/self-isolation regulations from 5pm

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers and Self-Isolation) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

£800 'house party' FPN & police can now access track & trace data

https://t.co/k9XCpVsXhC


“Large gathering offence”

As trailed by Home Secretary last week there is now a fixed penalty notice of £800 (or £400 if you pay within 14 days) for participating in an gathering of over 15 people in a private residence


Fixed Penalty Notices double for each subsequent “large gathering offence” up to £6,400

Compare:
- Ordinary fixed penalty notice is £200 or £100 if paid in 14 days
- Holding or being involved in the holding of a gathering of over 30 people is £10,000


Second big change:

Since September has been a legal requirement to sell-isolate if you test positive/notified by Track & Trace of exposure to someone else who tested positive

Police can now be given access to NHS Track & Trace data if for the purpose of enforcement/prosecution


This will make it easier for police to enforce people breaking self-isolation rules. Currently there has been practically no enforcement.

Data says only a small proportion of people meant to be self-isolating are fully doing so.

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