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The idea that CERB basic income payments *caused* an increase in population overdose deaths isn't an idea that deserves analysis, but humour me? What if we applied some of Bradford Hill's criteria of causation?

THREAD.

(Spoiler: It makes the notion even more ridiculous)


Temporality?

If CERB caused an increase in fatal ODs, the program had to come *before* the increase. The surge clearly started in *March*.

Compared to Feb:
AB: 43%⬆️
BC: 53%⬆️
ON: 19%⬆️

You couldn't even apply for CERB till *April 6*, and payments didn't come till mid-April.


Dose-response?

In causal relationships, there's⬆️incidence where there's⬆️exposure.

In April when people started getting CERB OD deaths went up in:
AB by 26%
BC by 4.3%
ON by 29%

But the proportion of people getting CERB was statistically *the same* (~23.5%) in each province.


Coherence with established evidence?

The literature shows financial *insecurity*, not financial support, contributes to higher risk substance use and poorer health outcomes. The "CERB made ODs go up" narrative isn't just inconsistent with the science. It's *opposite* to it.


More plausible than other explanations?

The mechanism suggested for the "CERB effect" is that when you give extra money to people previously living on less than we need to survive (that's the *actual* problem), they buy a bunch of drugs and die. So fatality rates go up.
Sharing.


“What authority does POTUS have specifically over the Marines?”

“only branch of service that falls directly under exec command”

“Nati Sec Act of 1947, amended in 1952, specifies the duties of the USMC to include: ‘perform such other duties as the president may direct.’”


This is the QProof. Go back


10/31/2017, Q wrote:

“Why is ANTIFA allowed to operate?
Why hasn't the MB been classified as a terrorist org?
What happens if Soros funded operations get violent and engage in domestic terrorism?
What happens if mayors/ police comms/chiefs do not enforce the law?”

2020...


How is it possible?
This is a must-read article by @mlipsitch and @kesvelt and I strongly agree with the central points: we urgently need to step up genomic surveillance & get transmission down now in the US while these are rare.

But a couple things to expand on from a virology point of view.


The piece talks about the B117 variant as if it’s not SARS-CoV-2, but it is. B117 is distinguished by 23 changes across the genome, but it’s still fundamentally the same virus. It’s a different variant (some are calling it a strain depending on how that’s defined).

But 23 nucleotide changes aren’t sufficient to make this a completely different virus. So we are still fighting SARS-CoV-2. Just a new and improved version. Improved how? Well it’s more transmissible but the mechanism isn’t yet known.

When viruses become more transmissible it can happen in a few different ways:
-virus can be more fit (replicate to higher titers, hence more shedding)
-virus can replicate more efficiently in specific tissues (like the nose)
-spike can bind the receptor more efficiently and...

...thus infect host cells more efficiently
-virus can get better at evading/antagonizing innate host antiviral defenses
-increased environmental stability
-people can shed virus for longer periods of time
1/ This month we'll learn whether the US is a banana republic ruled by election fraud or a constitutional republic based on attempted election integrity.

#GodSaveTheRepublic #AdjudicateFraud #FraudMatters #EvidenceMatters #MassiveFraudEvidence


2/ Judges refuse to review fraud evidence based on an alleged lack of standing. Why do illegal aliens have more standing in the US? Louie Gohmert on Pence: 'ignore all electors' and choose a winner as he sees fit' https://t.co/OHbSpEEPnp

#Trump2021 #Amendment12 #ElectoralVote


3/ Are Mike Pence and the 12th Amendment January 6th the last hope to save the US Republic from becoming the perpetually corrupt US Banana Republic tossed into the waste bin of history?

https://t.co/7HYkLVfAq3

#ElectionFraud #BananaRepublic #Amendment12 #January6 #Jan6th


4/ Election fraud increases daily: EXCLUSIVE: Fraudulent Georgia Ballots Were Addressed to Elections Consultant Dwight Brower - The Same Guy Who Reported the Fake Water Main Break and Then Terminated Election Whistleblower via @gatewaypundit https://t.co/RkgSD0wwXf #StopTheSteal

5/ Donald Trump's correct. The Georgia Senate runoffs are illegal and invalid, STILL using illegal Dominion, owned and influenced by hostile foreign election interference, against 2018 EO prohibiting Foreign Election Interference.
https://t.co/J1pJ9fPrqh via @whitehouse
It looks like 45 Republican Senators voted against holding an impeachment trial for Trump.

I hope nobody had high hopes that the GOP would do the right thing.

The GOP remains the Party of Trump and is hardening into an extremist anti-democratic

They are the anti-rule of law, anti truth party.
https://t.co/e6EME39xNn
Fortunately, they're outnumbered.

Not by much, but they're outnumbered.


Hi, everyone.

A lot of these doomsday comments are annoying me.

Have you all learned nothing over the past few years?

You might want to duck because, I'm about to go on a tear . . .

The same people telling me we're doomed and democracy is dead are probably the same people who told me (1) Trump would make himself dictator (2) The Supreme Court would keep him in office and (3) he would never leave the White House.

Nobody owes you a democracy . . .

My mantra the past 4 years: democracy will survive if enough people want it to, and are willing to do the work.

Did the doomsday people happen to see that the vote was 55-45 in favor of holding a trial?

I think the problem is there has been so much peddling of hope porn. . .