But soon, we'll be confronted with question -- do we give 2nd shot to some people or 1st shot to more people
Is there clinical trial evidence that 1 dose is helpful?
Yes
2/n
I've been thinking about the debate of delayed vs. immediate 2nd dose for some time
Over past week, have become convinced that getting all doses out now is better
Its NOT a no-brainer
Reasonable people can (and do!!) disagree
So here's why my thinking evolved
Thread
In @washingtonpost, @ashishkjha & I argue for the 2nd-shot-deferred strategy, partly by invoking the Mike Tyson principle. https://t.co/ZxrgVj3TJe We both came to this view because of the slow rollout & the new variant. But it's a tough call and reasonable people will disagree.
— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) January 3, 2021
But soon, we'll be confronted with question -- do we give 2nd shot to some people or 1st shot to more people
Is there clinical trial evidence that 1 dose is helpful?
Yes
2/n
There is compelling data from Pfizer and Moderna trials that after about 10 d after 1 dose, you get 80-90% efficacy
https://t.co/38qlTYP77u
https://t.co/4V8SxM3tU5
So the BIG question is -- is that going to be durable beyond 21 to 28 days?
We don't know for sure
3/n
Here's one of our nation's most expert immunologists, @VirusesImmunity laying out her assessment of delayed vs immediate 2nd dose
https://t.co/BN7k4Xxx5C
4/9
My first tweet of 2021 is going to be about 1 dose vs. 2 dose vaccine. I have tweeted in the past of the immunological advantages of a 2 dose vaccine. However, given the enhanced transmission variants on the rise, we need a modified strategy. (1/n) https://t.co/si1bxgKqbf
— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) January 1, 2021
But we can't be sure
So why take this risk at all?
Why not just stay with the clinical trial?
Reasonable question
Here's why
5/9
And that number again in February
Most 75 year-olds won't get their first dose for many more weeks
And most 64 year-olds won't for months
And the new variant will become dominant in that time
6/9
Its -- look at all the science, the whole picture
The data from the clinical trials
What we know about vaccine durability
What we know about the variant taking off
And think about what saves most lives
7/9
Get 2nd doses into arms as they become available later winter
Now, reasonable to make some exceptions like nursing home residents where you want to maximize protection
But if you listen to Operation Warp Speed
8/10
If we can get that many into arms by mid-February, it will make a huge difference
It won't just protect many more people
If you believe that vaccines will likely slow spread, it'll slow down disease across the nation
9/10
Bottom line is that I realize we are pushing for something that has risk
But we should not ignore the risk of not doing this at all
Here's the op-ed again
Fin
https://t.co/UWAj9cY08N
More from Government
Labour Grandees are listed in Sir Keir Starmer's colleague Jeffrey Epstein's ''Little Black Book''; Blair, Mandelson and Alastair Campbell. COINCIDENTLY, Keir Starmer and some of the same people have connections to ANOTHER of the worlds most prolific peadophiles. #StarmerOut
Starmer failed to bring charges against Jimmy Savile for paedophilia. The decision was made despite the Crown Prosecution Service receiving substantial evidence of his crimes from witnesses and victims several years before Savile died in 2011. #StarmerOut https://t.co/PNyX5uSAkw
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility.
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut
As leader of Islington Council, a post she held from 1982-92, Margaret Hodge was aware of previous, horrendous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #CSA
She was guilty of rather more than a casual failure of oversight. In an open letter to the BBC after it investigated a range of monstrous abuse (child prostitution, torture, alleged murders), Hodge libelled one of its victims as “seriously disturbed”. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut
Starmer failed to bring charges against Jimmy Savile for paedophilia. The decision was made despite the Crown Prosecution Service receiving substantial evidence of his crimes from witnesses and victims several years before Savile died in 2011. #StarmerOut https://t.co/PNyX5uSAkw
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility.
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut
As leader of Islington Council, a post she held from 1982-92, Margaret Hodge was aware of previous, horrendous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #CSA
She was guilty of rather more than a casual failure of oversight. In an open letter to the BBC after it investigated a range of monstrous abuse (child prostitution, torture, alleged murders), Hodge libelled one of its victims as “seriously disturbed”. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut
This is a good piece on fissures within the GOP but I think it mischaracterizes the Trump presidency as “populist” & repeats a story about how conservatives & the GOP expelled the far-right in the mid-1960s that is actually far more complicated. /1
I don’t think the sharp opposition between “hard-edge populism” & “conservative orthodoxy” holds. Many of the Trump administration’s achievements were boilerplate conservatism. Its own website trumpets things like “massive deregulation,” tax cuts, etc. /2
https://t.co/N97v85Bb79
The claim that Buckley and “key GOP politicians banded together to marginalize anti-Communist extremism and conspiracy-mongering” of the JBS has been widely repeated lately but the history is more complicated. /3
This tweet by @ThePlumLineGS citing a paper by @sam_rosenfeld and @daschloz on the "porous" boundary between conservatives, the GOP and the far-right is relevant in this context.
This is a separate point but I find it interesting that Gaetz, like Roy Moore did In his failed Senate campaign, disses McConnell. What are their actual policy differences? MM supported taking health care away from millions, a tax cut for the rich, conservative judges, etc. /5
I don’t think the sharp opposition between “hard-edge populism” & “conservative orthodoxy” holds. Many of the Trump administration’s achievements were boilerplate conservatism. Its own website trumpets things like “massive deregulation,” tax cuts, etc. /2
https://t.co/N97v85Bb79
The claim that Buckley and “key GOP politicians banded together to marginalize anti-Communist extremism and conspiracy-mongering” of the JBS has been widely repeated lately but the history is more complicated. /3
This tweet by @ThePlumLineGS citing a paper by @sam_rosenfeld and @daschloz on the "porous" boundary between conservatives, the GOP and the far-right is relevant in this context.
There's a great paper called "The Long New Right" that tells the story of the GOP/conservative movement's failure to police extremists for the last 50 years.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 28, 2021
It's highly relevant to the insurrection and Marjorie Greene's lunacy.
I summed it up here:https://t.co/DTlzGomy5h pic.twitter.com/Dhc38CDuE2
This is a separate point but I find it interesting that Gaetz, like Roy Moore did In his failed Senate campaign, disses McConnell. What are their actual policy differences? MM supported taking health care away from millions, a tax cut for the rich, conservative judges, etc. /5
