Let's discuss how little you actually understand about economics and energy.

The first thing to understand is that energy is not globally fungible. Electricity decays as it leaves its point of origin; it’s expensive to transport. There is a huge excess (hydro) in many areas.

In other words, it can also be variable. It's estimated that in Sichuan there is twice as much electricity produced as is needed during the rainy season. Indeed, there is seasonality to how Bitcoin mining works. You can see here: https://t.co/dzPI5LAOln
Bitcoin EXPORTS energy in this scenario. Fun fact, most industrial nations would steer this excess capacity towards refining aluminum by melting bauxite ore, which is very energy intensive.

You wouldn't argue that we are producing *too much* electricity from renewables, right?
"But what about the carbon footprint! ITS HUGE!"

Many previous estimates have quite faulty methods and don't take into account the actual energy sources. Is it fair to put a GHG equivalent on hydro or solar power? That would seem a bit disingenuous, no?
Well that's exactly what some have done.

https://t.co/el1Zzy6g31

https://t.co/JSof31ObNs
Only a wholly uncritical mind would take dubious research like this and double down on a bad take. China's policy has largely veered towards keeping miners out of the 'steady' power grid that runs on coal simply because other productive industries are given preference by the CCP.
Let's consider the other sources of electricity which miners use now and may depend on at greater scale in the future:

Recently the petro industry has experimented with burning CH4 "flare-offs" to power Bitcoin miners, cutting methane emissions and reducing warming potential.
Solar is also free energy for most who are brave enough to commit to the cooling costs and infrastructural requirements. It's been done before and it will absolutely scale as panels become even cheaper.

https://t.co/WaleCRMh51
In fact, even if individuals and companies mining bitcoin do not shift to a renewable-based mining scheme, locales may just force them to do it. In Missoula, MT, miners must "either purchase or build renewable sources of energy that completely offset the electricity they consume"
Furthermore it is estimated that globally between 40-70% of all cryptocurrency mining powered by renewables. Of course this is up for debate and depends on who you ask.

It's fine to be critical of Bitcoin and the negative externalities, but it's worth being well informed.

More from Economy

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

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