1/ Thoughts on Disney's Analyst Day.

Obviously a longtime Disney D2C bull; I was astounded, shocked by slate's quality, range, volume.

This is Disney going beyond a digital "Vault" plus originals. It is saying all of your favorite stories, more,

2/ Not just a stronger Disney+, but one that hugely raises the tablestakes of competition, growth, press coverage, notability.

Paramount+ plans new Star Trek year round. Feels quaint now. Peacock will have a Jurassic Park + Fast series eventually. Cool.

https://t.co/yaH4k4L1GA
3/ In "Content, Cars, and Comparisons in the 'Streaming Wars'", I wrote about how Disney $1B in content spend gets several billion of equivalent spend through its resonance

Mando was a top 5 show per @ParrotAnalytics in 2019. Disney thinks it can have 10 "Top 5s" a year.
4/ Trade talk can be misleading, but it takes only a cursory look at Twitter, the most popular shows of the past decade (Walking Dead, Thrones, Mando, Stranger Things), Disney's dominance at the box office (8 of top 10 in 2019) and wonder how to beat this

https://t.co/t8l0tQvuu1
5/ Roadmap doesn't just suck oxygen out of streaming wars (as Netflix did from 2014-18), it will enable Disney+ to rapidly grow its price

If I pay $54 a year to use Disney+ for 2 months, what happens when it's year-round?

Worth $15 month in 2023.

https://t.co/wyLkyzfqi8
6/ Disney obviously sandbagged its original 60-90MM estimate, but elevating this forecast to 230-260MM on the same time horizon, one year in, has to be the largest elevation at a company of this size... ever?
7/ Disney spoke about how much more popular Disney+ was with households without kids. That's key.

At the same time, half of those I know with kids... had set-up iPads for their kids to watch a four hour corporate event... out of enthusiasm for Disney+. That's unreplicable
8/ This is an impossibly great company. And still surprised.

From Oct 2019:
Disney, IP, and "Returns to Marginal Affinity"
https://t.co/8Rapc2gHi4
https://t.co/KDwt3Lh2c9
9/ Also important is to note the extraordinary talent Disney was able to attract despite (1) Capped backends; (2) IP constraints; (3) Disney+ centric distribution.

Darren Aronofsky making Disney+ docuseries? Patty Jenkins doing Star Wars? Amy Adams doing an Enchanted 2?

More from Economy

1/ To add a little texture to @NickHanauer's thread, it's important to recognize that there's a good reason why orthodox economists (& economic cosplayers) so vehemently oppose a $15 min wage:

The min wage is a wedge that threatens to undermine all of orthodox economic theory.


2/ Orthodox economics is grounded in two fundamental models: a systems model that describes the market as a closed equilibrium system, and a behavioral model that describes humans as rational, self-interested utility-maximizers. The modern min wage debate undermines both models.

3/ The assertion that a min wage kills jobs is so central to orthodox economics that it is often used as the textbook example of the Supply/Demand curve. Raise the cost of labor and businesses will buy less of it. It's literally Econ 101!


4/ Econ 101 insists that markets automatically set an efficient "equilibrium price" for labor & everything else. Mess with this price and bad things happen. Yet decades of empirical research has persuaded a majority of economists that this just isn't

5/ How can this be? Well, either the market is not a closed equilibrium system in which if you raise the price of labor employers automatically purchase less of it... OR the market is not automatically setting an efficient and fair equilibrium wage. Or maybe both. #FAIL

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