In his book, Big Debt Crises, Dalio studied more than 48 debt crises that have occurred throughout history.
Ray Dalio understands the macro environment as well as anyone.
While most investment managers were down big during the Great Financial Crisis, Dalio’s fund was up 8.7% in 2008.
Here is how Dalio views our global economy today:
In his book, Big Debt Crises, Dalio studied more than 48 debt crises that have occurred throughout history.
• Productivity Growth
• The Short-Term Debt Cycle
• The Long-Term Debt Cycle
In the long run, the economy is primarily driven by productivity
In the short run, the economy is primarily driven by credit and debt
Dalio defines credit as the giving of buying power.
The buying power is given to the borrower in exchange for a promise to pay it back, which is debt.
It’s especially good when credit is used by individuals and businesses to expand the production of the overall economy.
Dalio warns that throughout history, most countries eventually run into debt crises because policymakers generally err on the side of being too loose with credit.
In order to pay that back, that person will need to spend less than they make at some point in the future.
More credit ➡️ more spending ➡️ higher incomes ➡️ higher asset prices 🔁
Less credit ➡️ less spending ➡️ lower incomes ➡️ lower asset prices 🔁
Credit exacerbates the natural boom/bust cycle.
The short-term debt cycle, widely known as the business cycle, occurs roughly every 5-8 years.
Interest rates are a key driver in debt accumulation, as cheap money incentivizes individuals, companies, and countries to take on debt at artificially low-interest rates.
• Austerity (spending less)
• Debt defaults/restructurings
• The central bank printing money
• Wealth redistribution
It’s the easiest way out and the most effective tool relative to the other options.
This has been the Fed’s playbook since the GFC.
Going forward, I expect:
• The Federal Reserve funds US government deficits, leading to continued currency devaluation relative to real goods and services.
• Artificially low-interest rates with negative real rates.
Here’s Dalio explaining why:
• Have a solid emergency fund
• Live within your means
• Eliminate unnecessary debts
• Own a diversified portfolio
• Own quality, cash flow positive companies
Focus on what you can control.
https://t.co/8zDSOeubbi
Ray Dalio understands the macro environment as well as anyone.
— Clay Finck (@Clay_Finck) November 29, 2022
While most investment managers were down big during the Great Financial Crisis, Dalio\u2019s fund was up 8.7% in 2008.
Here is how Dalio views our global economy today: pic.twitter.com/rXFusmWVrk
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Facebook originally a CIA program called "LifeLog".
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win
https://t.co/enzOXDCogV
Pentagon Kills LifeLog
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win
https://t.co/enzOXDCogV
Project: Lifelog
— Robert Horan (@Robby12692) December 13, 2018
Started by DARPA in 1999, the goal of Lifelog was to create a database on civilians without their knowledge, and track everything they do.
The project "ended" on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook began the exact same day.
The CIA funneled tens of millions into Facebook. pic.twitter.com/r7hwF0v9kh
Pentagon Kills LifeLog
The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
The story doesn\u2019t say you were told not to... it says you did so without approval and they tried to obfuscate what you found. Is that true?
— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
