#Bitcoin update:

- Trapped in consolidation between $30 and $38k
- Lower highs and supply above c$38k
- Buying interest on the books £30-33k
- Meme consolidation triangle
- 20 wma @ $19.5k
- Accumulation VWAPs in the 20s
- underlying tether fud
- 61.8% retracement c. $22k

- 3 Day predator unconfirmed Orange candle

- Demand at low $30s was tested today and has since bounced & Coinbase led price on the drop

- Market structure is complex - Triangle is misleading

- Lots of orders stacked @ 30-33k.
- Market is fearful in the demand zone as shown by funding; i do not think we are ready to drop quite yet; Expecting longer consolidation.

- New Tether output has been on hold but new money came today

- Tether case request for 30 more days; could be indicative of consolidation
- Breakdown in price deeper than high $20s / lower $30s would IMO most likely require FUD induced event

- If stars align 20 WMA is catching up fast and will probably be resting in with the accumulation VWAPs, 61.8% retracement &d drives into big buy orders.
- Why did we stop @ $40k?
- Miners deep in profit vs. 654 average; time to tp
- SImilar response in other cycles

https://t.co/Iurd68NnZZ
1 Year HODL wave;

- Shows investors holding coins in the cycle dumping to TP.

https://t.co/wCWE23ifhu
MVRV Z Score and SOPR also showing extent of unrealized PL.

https://t.co/FIcsO7I4Cn

https://t.co/rE0THDXgS1
What this tells us is;

- MIners deep in relative profit
- Cyclical Hodlers de-risking
- Market behaviors largely representative of prior cycles.
- WIll be useful to look for dips (SOPR/BE Point)
- Will be useful looking for tops (miners and unrealized PL)
Im sitting on my hands for now, its actually clear to me; clear $38k & turn to support then let's talk bullish; keep it as resistance then Bitcoin is weak & we need to see volume divergences, etc indicating hidden accumulation & dodging FUD.
I welcome both a healthy consolidation establishing $30k as a floor & see any dip into the low-mid $20ks as a cyclical dip opportunity.

Im neutral for now and positioned as such.

Good luck.

More from Bitcoin

Agree mate. Well done @ttmygh @profplum99 and @nic__carter on a ripping show. Im obviously in the "gold is superior" camp, though I am long #BTC (tiny position). I thought the best/most interesting point of whole debate was raised by @profplum99 regarding the fact that a 1/n


#Bitcoin transaction is never really final, given the energy required to keep the network running, and obviously its scale issues will only grow over time. That said, I actually though @nic__carter "won" the debate as it were, and I was unconvinced by the threat to national 2/n

security or undermining Fed policy angles Mike put forward. Two areas that are super interesting to me. One is the issue of #Bitcoin ownership, and how concentrated it is in terms of a small % of addresses that own most of it (2% addresses > 95% of holdings I think). 3/n

made great point a lot of this is omnibus/exchange related - so exchange or fund - ie @Grayscale holds #bitcoin for multiple investors. That may well be true - but it brings up 2 other issues. One - it proves that #bitcoin doesn't really "work" without 4/n

centralisation - as this implies most people need exchanges or funds (or @Paypal) to buy it. If so, that kills off a major "bitcoin is better than gold argument" - as in reality, gold is way more decentralised (from mine supply to ownership distribution). It also brings up a 5/n
1/THREAD: WHEN WAS IT CLEAR?

Oct. 8, 2020: The purpose of this thread is to document and timestamp when it first became clear that #Bitcoin was likely to become a major reserve asset for public corporations, and eventually states, with Square's purchase of $50M in BTC.

The purpose is to give something to cite when ppl later claim "But there was NO WAY OF KNOWING..."

h/t @ErikSTownsend who used the same format to call out the impact of Covid on Feb 8 and made me personally aware of the looming shutdown of the country
https://t.co/opuiNgSeqC !


Bitcoiners smarter than me have been predicting the takeover of the dollar by Bitcoin for many years.

In 2014 with Bitcoin barely at $1B, @pierre_rochard wrote https://t.co/EGHa58KqHq, covering all the incorrect narratives of Bitcoin and stating it will overtake the dollar.

"[skeptics] misunderstand how strong currencies like bitcoin overtake weak currencies like the dollar: it is through speculative attacks and currency crises caused by investors, not through the careful evaluation of tech journalists and 'mainstream consumers'" - @pierre_rochard

I first became bullish on Bitcoin in the summer of 2016, around a $3B market cap, but it was still a toy project at that time in the eyes of most in the financial world, while many technologists thought of it as a v1 technology to be improved on.

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