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Much awaited session at Kolkata by Utpal Seth, Rare Enterprises, on "Dimensions of Mistakes in Investing", to be moderated by Varun Goenka.
#MAW

 Utpal Sheth starts with a tribute to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Utpal Sheth lays out the context for today's session - Mistakes are rarely discussed!

Outcomes don't define mistakes. They are known through a process of deep introspection & multiple iterations. The opportunity cost of not embracing mistakes is very high.
When speaking of mistakes in investing, we often speak of 'Type 2 errors', and at times of type 1 errors. Utpal speaks of Type 1.5 error - not buying / selling with conviction!
Utpal discusses their process with mistakes - and quotes Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - making mistakes isn't a crime, repeating them is. Discusses mistakes at RARE Enterprises with the audience with ease.
One needs to think of portfolio balance very deeply. Sizing the bet depends on the degree of conviction and degree of evidence. Recommended book: "Thinking in Bets"
On thinking about investment mistakes - 3 key steps - identification, attribution and rectification. Attribution of mistakes needs time and thought - one need not wait to attribute mistakes for rectification!
Buying right is tough. The probability of making a good investment is low - due to the chance of making a mistake in any of the 5-8 parameters we use for evaluation. The key is to identify the right jungle (Megatrend) and the right company within that (Gorilla).
Discusses in detail examples of mistakes in buying
Type 1 (didn't buy): Bajaj Finance
Type 1.5 (didn't buy enough/sold partly): CRISIL
Type 2 (bought incorrectly): A2Z Infra Engineering
Important: Parameters in discussion were on their framework - Identifying the Megatrend (see next tweet) they were part of, and whether they were Clear leader, Near leader, and Emerging leader
Important: Megatrend buckets used by Rare Enterprises: Consumption, Globalisation, Financial deepening, Digitalisation, Outsourcing and Formalisation, and Renewable Energy.
Now discusses Mistakes in selling:

Type 1 (Didn't sell right): Bilcare Limited
Type 1.5 (didn't sell enough): Praj Industries
Type 2 (Sold too early): Relaxo Footwear

These hurt much more, and they have had much to learn from these.
Utpal concludes his presentation with quotes from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Jeff Bezos, and adds: Embrace your mistake, let mistakes not affect the balance of your mind, and have a risk Management framework to enable peace of mind.
We now head to the Q&A session, moderated by @VGoenka82
Q: Attitude that helped him achieve heights
A: Learning attitude and adaptability. Hopes to have a learning attitude to the last day, and ensure that it's not an 'ivory tower learning' - it's important to implement and execute (hence adaptability and resilience).
Q: How to think about portfolio sizing, given the low joint probability of being right?
A: Buy decisions need not be at one point in time. Gradually build conviction - and continue buying - even if at higher levels. Refers to @mjmauboussin 's Probability adjusted Investing.
Speaks on the importance of the right culture in identifying companies that could create terminal value. You can replace the machinery, the product and all else. You can't buy culture!
Q: How to build the right investment team.
A: one needs to have the right enviornment, empowerment,and right leadership. Complementing skills and behaviours should be present - balance between accelerator and brakes.
Closing remarks from Utpal: Keep learning, keep adapting and keep investing. Don't be afraid of mistakes, protect your state of mind, it's a fulfilling journey. Has had a good time interacting with youngsters here and looks forward to more such at the #MAW conference.

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ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 21 and 200 Moving Average
SUNDAY THREAD 🔖
A trend Following System That will Help You Improve Trading immensely.

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@kuttrapali26 @AmitabhJha3
#stocks #StockMarket
1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
2/


21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
#ADANIPOWER:
#pnbhousing
4/n


1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
3. Whenever 21 ema is sideways its called consolidation
⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
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Anu Satheesh
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Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

This is very unique temple as Shiva and Vishnu both are in the “linga” form in the same Garbhagriham. The Srikovil is in a circular pattern. Temple's Prathishta was done by Parasurama.


Mahadeva and Maha Vishnu in the same Srikovil is very rare Prathishta, but poojas are done separately Dhara is done to Maha Vishnu here. People suffering from “KAIVISHAM” and mental illness are fully cured on drinking a medicinal herb supplied by a nearby family here.


The root of the banyan tree around the Ayyappa Sannidhanam is said to have great powers for skin ailments.

Very ancient temple but was covered with forest for many years.
Later two persons Chakki and Chaathan, while cutting trees their axe hit on the nearby
@SriramKannan77


Vigrahams and it suddenly started bleeding. Later Devaprashnam was held and thus found out that these were murthy's of Shiva and Vishnu which was worshipped long back. And thus temple is constructed here.
Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉
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@VIBHU_Tweet
RISHI PINGALA:THE ANCIENT INDIAN SAGE DISCREDITED FOR HIS MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO MATHEMATICS & PHI

Have you ever heard about,"The Golden Ratio"?
The Golden Ratio or Phi(Greek) is a mathematical ratio of nature. Mother Nature is the most exquisite artist in herself.


&Its this Phi she uses to create all the beauty in World.
If anyone uses this ratio correctly in their art,it can turn into a spell-binding piece of work.Such is the significance of'Phi'.But my thread isn't about it.Its about somethin called'Fibonacci Series'&who actually made it


Phi is related to Fibonacci series(0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...)
&this series is responsible for everything dat is beautiful on this planet. Just try to calculate the ratio of any 2 successive numbers ÷ each of them by the number before it in above infinite series.

E.g. 3/2=1.5, 5/3=1.666, 8/5=1.6, 34/21=1.61904 and so on. Did you notice something? The ratio is coming almost same every time. This ratio is called 'Phi 'which is numerically represented as 1:1.618. This Golden Spiral is made in exact proportion of 1:1.618.


The thing I want to emphasize here is that we always find only those things appealing and attractive that have Phi. It's in our subconscious. Isn't it some revelation? We are the part of this Divine proportion of the God or the Mother Nature. Check these:
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कुंडली में 12 भाव होते हैं। कैसे ज्योतिष द्वारा रोग के आंकलन करते समय कुंडली के विभिन्न भावों से गणना करते हैं आज इस पर चर्चा करेंगे।
कुण्डली को कालपुरुष की संज्ञा देकर इसमें शरीर के अंगों को स्थापित कर उनसे रोग, रोगेश, रोग को बढ़ाने घटाने वाले ग्रह


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मेडिकल ज्योतिष में आज के समय में Dr. K. S. Charak का नाम निर्विवाद रूप से प्रथम स्थान रखता है। उनकी लिखी कई पुस्तकें आज इस क्षेत्र में नए ज्योतिषों का मार्गदर्शन कर रही हैं।
प्रथम भाव -
इस भाव से हम व्यक्ति की रोगप्रतिरोधक क्षमता, सिर, मष्तिस्क का विचार करते हैं।


द्वितीय भाव-
दाहिना नेत्र, मुख, वाणी, नाक, गर्दन व गले के ऊपरी भाग का विचार होता है।
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1. #Qanon told us that Saudi Arabia is a central piece of the puzzle in taking out the Deep State...we are watching the Deep State attempt to remove Crown Prince MBS and disrupt Pres Trump's administration's ties with MBS and the "new" Saudi/US coalition. Early in his admin,


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IMPORTANCE, ADVANTAGES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BHAGWAT PURAN

It was Ved Vyas who edited the eighteen thousand shlokas of Bhagwat. This book destroys all your sins. It has twelve parts which are like kalpvraksh.

In the first skandh, the importance of Vedvyas


and characters of Pandavas are described by the dialogues between Suutji and Shaunakji. Then there is the story of Parikshit.
Next there is a Brahm Narad dialogue describing the avtaar of Bhagwan. Then the characteristics of Puraan are mentioned.

It also discusses the evolution of universe.( https://t.co/2aK1AZSC79 )

Next is the portrayal of Vidur and his dialogue with Maitreyji. Then there is a mention of Creation of universe by Brahma and the preachings of Sankhya by Kapil Muni.


In the next section we find the portrayal of Sati, Dhruv, Pruthu, and the story of ancient King, Bahirshi.
In the next section we find the character of King Priyavrat and his sons, different types of loks in this universe, and description of Narak. ( https://t.co/gmDTkLktKS )


In the sixth part we find the portrayal of Ajaamil ( https://t.co/LdVSSNspa2 ), Daksh and the birth of Marudgans( https://t.co/tecNidVckj )

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Your Most PRECIOUS Currencies:

-Energy

-Time

-Attention

-Trust

-Love

-Loyalty

-Respect

Only give these currencies to high value people. Never spend these currencies on low value shitheads eg: trolls, weasels, snakes, naysayers etc.

'Wait, I thought money was the most important currency?'

Nah.

Once you adopt abundance mentality, you realize their is no shortage of money.

Making the dollars your most important currency will have you leading an empty life.

Time to flip your perspective.

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▪Energy

When you strip yourself to the core, you are an emotional creature.

Emotions are your internal worlds energy.

Harnessing that energy is crucial for leveraging yourself to obtain whatever you want.

You have a finite amount everyday, so spend it wisely.

▪Time

A second that is lost will never be returned.

You start valuing the hell out of this currency the more you mature.

As the years start adding up, you realize time is precious.

You must always have a scarcity mindset towards time.

Once you do so, you will not be lazy.

▪Attention

You can be here, but not present.

Attention is completely mental.

Giving someone your attention means you are clearing up mental bandwidth to make room for them.

Only give your attention to people who help you grow.

For the negative ones?

Ignore their existence
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