The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
Bringing Data Science to Nifty Analysis. A small 🧵
As per Normal Distribution 68% of the time movement is with 1% SD Limits.
For 95% pf the times movement is within 2% SD limits.
And its only 0.3% of the times that movement exceeds 3 SD.
The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
https://t.co/HHwUpIXTRG
The Galton Machine shows order from randomness. Each ball bounces left or right at random, 12 times, but together where they fall can be predicted - the normal distribution. This one made by: https://t.co/oI9wOGq7nG pic.twitter.com/VQtVu66OSE
— Tom Stafford (@tomstafford) April 19, 2018
When we say that price is at upper/lower Bollinger band, we are saying that it has reached 2 SD limits and likely to reverse.
First with default setting and in second change settings to 3 standard deviation.
Crossing 3 SD boundary means that Nifty is now in very rare territory where it has been only 0.3%
More from Professor
More pointers to help in identifying whether its accumulation or Distribution.
Lest some charlie jumps to point out, let me make it clear that I haven't invented anything in stock market, all my knowledge of stock market comes from old farts. Just my observation is my own. https://t.co/uHNw8tV4AO
Lest some charlie jumps to point out, let me make it clear that I haven't invented anything in stock market, all my knowledge of stock market comes from old farts. Just my observation is my own. https://t.co/uHNw8tV4AO
Plz advice how to identify accumulation and distribution phase...... to me Both looks same
— VIVEK VAID (@bobvaid) February 12, 2022
Starting the Beginner’s Pathway thread for Fundamental Investing.
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that I’m giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So I’ll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that I’m giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So I’ll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Sadda Haqq ! Aithe Rakhh......... pic.twitter.com/IH5q3v2gw9
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) October 5, 2021
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch
Crude Oil forming bottom at US$ 100 for now, which is a big psychological level.
Needs to break below this level for real impact. https://t.co/r5KoExzFKc
Needs to break below this level for real impact. https://t.co/r5KoExzFKc
NYMEX Crude Oil update !
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) July 1, 2022
Its not ready to come below US$ 100 which is a big psychological level ! Everytime it comes near that zone, it takes a bounce. https://t.co/xQ3dZZXNiu pic.twitter.com/7WS38JU6JF
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
