The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
Bringing Data Science to Nifty Analysis. A small 🧵
As per Normal Distribution 68% of the time movement is with 1% SD Limits.
For 95% pf the times movement is within 2% SD limits.
And its only 0.3% of the times that movement exceeds 3 SD.
The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
https://t.co/HHwUpIXTRG
The Galton Machine shows order from randomness. Each ball bounces left or right at random, 12 times, but together where they fall can be predicted - the normal distribution. This one made by: https://t.co/oI9wOGq7nG pic.twitter.com/VQtVu66OSE
— Tom Stafford (@tomstafford) April 19, 2018
When we say that price is at upper/lower Bollinger band, we are saying that it has reached 2 SD limits and likely to reverse.
First with default setting and in second change settings to 3 standard deviation.
Crossing 3 SD boundary means that Nifty is now in very rare territory where it has been only 0.3%
More from Professor
Starting the Beginner’s Pathway thread for Fundamental Investing.
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that I’m giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So I’ll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that I’m giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So I’ll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Sadda Haqq ! Aithe Rakhh......... pic.twitter.com/IH5q3v2gw9
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) October 5, 2021
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch
IRCTC below 640 today !
Have no intention to enjoy the misery of fellow market participants but 'Maine Bola Tha' !
#ProfGyan - If a freak low gets made some day, Stocks/Indices always try to visit it at least once (seekh lo, mere mentorship course ka launch kuch pukka nahi hai) https://t.co/3B6e2nMx0y
Have no intention to enjoy the misery of fellow market participants but 'Maine Bola Tha' !
#ProfGyan - If a freak low gets made some day, Stocks/Indices always try to visit it at least once (seekh lo, mere mentorship course ka launch kuch pukka nahi hai) https://t.co/3B6e2nMx0y
Two prophecies about IRCTC:
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) May 1, 2022
1. It would touch 640 someday
2. It would get expelled from F&O https://t.co/qJ04hG0qFH pic.twitter.com/TPUBSQFW1y