The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
Bringing Data Science to Nifty Analysis. A small 🧵
As per Normal Distribution 68% of the time movement is with 1% SD Limits.
For 95% pf the times movement is within 2% SD limits.
And its only 0.3% of the times that movement exceeds 3 SD.
The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
https://t.co/HHwUpIXTRG
The Galton Machine shows order from randomness. Each ball bounces left or right at random, 12 times, but together where they fall can be predicted - the normal distribution. This one made by: https://t.co/oI9wOGq7nG pic.twitter.com/VQtVu66OSE
— Tom Stafford (@tomstafford) April 19, 2018
When we say that price is at upper/lower Bollinger band, we are saying that it has reached 2 SD limits and likely to reverse.
First with default setting and in second change settings to 3 standard deviation.
Crossing 3 SD boundary means that Nifty is now in very rare territory where it has been only 0.3%
More from Professor
Breakouts in the direction of the general trend
The longer the market is in a range, the stronger the breakout
Stock making higher lows near resistance zone
(lower highs near support zone is a sign of weakness)
Some ofthe biggest breakouts occur after Volatility Contraction, the analogy is that more a spring is pressed, higher it jumps whenever it gets released.
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) October 2, 2021
There is a VCP Scanner on chartink (Not mine). This may also be used to find potential Breakouts. pic.twitter.com/y1lmay7D4e
Needs to break below this level for real impact. https://t.co/r5KoExzFKc
NYMEX Crude Oil update !
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) July 1, 2022
Its not ready to come below US$ 100 which is a big psychological level ! Everytime it comes near that zone, it takes a bounce. https://t.co/xQ3dZZXNiu pic.twitter.com/7WS38JU6JF
1. Go through Zerodha Varsity chapters on Technical Analysis at least 2 times.
2. Then read 'Technical Analysis Explained' by Martin Pring
3. Finally read 'Price Action bar by bar' by Al Books (Not for casual reader).
Sir @DillikiBiili , could you please suggest a book for technical analysis ?
— Pawan Yadav (@pawan_yadav86) March 25, 2022
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