The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
Bringing Data Science to Nifty Analysis. A small ЁЯз╡
As per Normal Distribution 68% of the time movement is with 1% SD Limits.
For 95% pf the times movement is within 2% SD limits.
And its only 0.3% of the times that movement exceeds 3 SD.

The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
https://t.co/HHwUpIXTRG
The Galton Machine shows order from randomness. Each ball bounces left or right at random, 12 times, but together where they fall can be predicted - the normal distribution. This one made by: https://t.co/oI9wOGq7nG pic.twitter.com/VQtVu66OSE
— Tom Stafford (@tomstafford) April 19, 2018
When we say that price is at upper/lower Bollinger band, we are saying that it has reached 2 SD limits and likely to reverse.
First with default setting and in second change settings to 3 standard deviation.
Crossing 3 SD boundary means that Nifty is now in very rare territory where it has been only 0.3%
More from Professor
So friends here is the thread on the recommended pathway for new entrants in the stock market.
Here I will share what I believe are essentials for anybody who is interested in stock markets and the resources to learn them, its from my experience and by no means exhaustive..
First the very basic : The Dow theory, Everybody must have basic understanding of it and must learn to observe High Highs, Higher Lows, Lower Highs and Lowers lows on charts and their
Even those who are more inclined towards fundamental side can also benefit from Dow theory, as it can hint start & end of Bull/Bear runs thereby indication entry and exits.
Next basic is Wyckoff's Theory. It tells how accumulation and distribution happens with regularity and how the market actually
Dow theory is old but
Here I will share what I believe are essentials for anybody who is interested in stock markets and the resources to learn them, its from my experience and by no means exhaustive..
First the very basic : The Dow theory, Everybody must have basic understanding of it and must learn to observe High Highs, Higher Lows, Lower Highs and Lowers lows on charts and their
Even those who are more inclined towards fundamental side can also benefit from Dow theory, as it can hint start & end of Bull/Bear runs thereby indication entry and exits.

Next basic is Wyckoff's Theory. It tells how accumulation and distribution happens with regularity and how the market actually
Dow theory is old but
Old is Gold....
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) January 23, 2020
this Bharti Airtel chart is a true copy of the Wyckoff Pattern propounded in 1931....... pic.twitter.com/tQ1PNebq7d
Starting the BeginnerтАЩs Pathway thread for Fundamental Investing.
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that IтАЩm giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So IтАЩll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch
One Chadarmod on timeline posted that IтАЩm giving gyan without having experience or expertise.
So IтАЩll begin with paying my portfolio performance tribute to these charlies.
https://t.co/GNM5SsNFNo
Sadda Haqq ! Aithe Rakhh......... pic.twitter.com/IH5q3v2gw9
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) October 5, 2021
Fundamentals based investing can generate serious wealth as the most famous (rather infamous) Warren Buffett has shown.
In India also we have many success stories like @VijayKedia1 @Raamdeo R K Damani Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Late Chandrakant Sampat and many many more....
Though I can't stop mentioning that both Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and R K Damani were traders in their initial days.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala still trades, he once said Traing is fun, its le fatafat, de fatafat
A lot of people (specially the beginners) buy stocks based on some friend's recommendation : XYZ le le, pukka chalega, maine bhi le rakha hai.
Few might have made money this way, but most do not. Why ?
There has to be a process.
Fundamentals based investing need thorough analysis of the Business & Company.
Here is a preliminary checklist by the legendary investor Peter lynch

OI Data reading seekh lo:
See Large OIl buildup kin strikes par hai and in between strikes data kaise move ho raha hai.
Thumb Rule:
Calls Reduction + Puts addition = Upthrust
Calls Addition + Put Reduction = Down move
Higher the Delta OI velocity, faster is the move.
See Large OIl buildup kin strikes par hai and in between strikes data kaise move ho raha hai.
Thumb Rule:
Calls Reduction + Puts addition = Upthrust
Calls Addition + Put Reduction = Down move
Higher the Delta OI velocity, faster is the move.
For Nifty Intraday Traders: As of now, this seems to be a buy on dip market and looks like there won't be any juicy trades on short side. Will update if data changes. https://t.co/PCIyyPld4A pic.twitter.com/ES3o4z60rY
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) March 11, 2022