Authors 𝗝.𝗠. 𝗕𝗘𝗥𝗚𝗘𝗥 #readoptimal
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I think this is debatable, and we won't know the answer for a while. There are two possible trajectories here. 1/x
Trajectory 1: The attack becomes a signal event like Ruby Ridge or Waco, and extremists use it as a rallying point going forward. They will certainly try to do this, but there are some key differences.
Primarily, the tepid federal response (which is bad on most levels) doesn't compare to those events, where LE screwed up and people died as an unambiguous result of questionable or straight bad LE action rather than the melee situation here.
Also those cases were the result of proactive federal enforcement, as opposed to a clearly defense posture here.
Trajectory 2 is backlash. There's some growing evidence for that in the snap polls from the last couple days. See:
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
Let's be clear: For the far-right groups that carried out Trump's insurrection, the siege of the Capitol was a huge success, a major propaganda coup. I talked to experts in right-wing extremism about what this event really meant to them. Alarming stuff:https://t.co/EzjeGsTlZK
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 8, 2021
Trajectory 1: The attack becomes a signal event like Ruby Ridge or Waco, and extremists use it as a rallying point going forward. They will certainly try to do this, but there are some key differences.
Primarily, the tepid federal response (which is bad on most levels) doesn't compare to those events, where LE screwed up and people died as an unambiguous result of questionable or straight bad LE action rather than the melee situation here.
Also those cases were the result of proactive federal enforcement, as opposed to a clearly defense posture here.
Trajectory 2 is backlash. There's some growing evidence for that in the snap polls from the last couple days. See:
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
Support for Trump supporters breaking into the US Capitol via new PBS/Marist poll:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) January 8, 2021
All Americans:
8% support
88% oppose
Republicans:
18% support
80% oppose
Democrats:
3% support
96% oppose