I really like @sweatystartup’s tone - and I think it applies to trading

Most fintwits try to sound smart and do complex formulas to convince you you’re too dumb to manage your own $. It’s marketing

For traders focused on cash flow:
A thread on what I call “the pnl grind”.

1/ the grind is a grind because it’s work ethic. 12 hours a day, min. And weekends.

The grind is a grind because it’s hitting singles. 5-10 trade concepts a day. Hypothesize. Swing. Measure. Repeat.

The grind is a term that comes from gangster rap. And it’s focused on 💵

2/ what does a “grind trade” look like? Signal hit the top of the App Store. What’s a basket of trades that will work in a privacy focused world?

Long Eqix short Twtr - private cloud vs regulation
Long Z cash short bitcoin - private crypto vs censored crypto

Just examples

3/ grind trading is all about 1 off events that diverge from history. Quant traders don’t model them well bc lack of history. Fancy long / short guys are slow moving their books. Day traders aren’t focused on fundamentals.

And let’s be honest - grinding works bc it’s brutal

4/ when Biden said he was going all in on cyber security, due to Russian hacking - it meant Russia was the new media scapegoat, so Blinken could deal w 🇨🇳. Blinken is a communist boot licker. So what. Don’t get emotional. Monetize. You went long $Feye/ $JD. Got paid. Moved on.

Many people on FinTwit incorrectly invoke Soros to justify buying TSLA or other trends at the highs. Soros preferred being early, having a trend, a misconception, a change of fundamentals and some early confirmation in price. Here are 7 examples I have on right now. A thread:

1/ The trend: climate change & growing Chinese wealth. The misconception: agriculture prices will always go down due to improved crop productivity. The Shock: Locust plague in Africa & water scarcity. The Trade: Long Cocoa Futures versus Hershey. The Confirmation:

2/ The trend: nationalism and Realpolitik. The misconception: ESG investing will halt investment in defense stocks. The Middle East is calming. The shock: Biden engaging with Taiwan. Kamala saying Assad needs to go. The trade: Defense stocks vs Russia and Saudi. The confirmation:

3/ The trend: state run markets. The misconception: the government will flex its muscles to benefit cloud, internet, and social media more than the genome sector. The shock: Moderna and Pfizer solving a $5 trillion+ problem with gene editing. The trade: ARKG vs ARKW. The chart:

4/ The trend: collapse in US soft power, business friendly dynamics. The misconception: capital will stay in the US instead of moving internationally. The shock: RCEP signed without the US - free trade zone in Southeast Asia. The trade: long Singapore (EWS) short R2K. Chart: