Many people on FinTwit incorrectly invoke Soros to justify buying TSLA or other trends at the highs. Soros preferred being early, having a trend, a misconception, a change of fundamentals and some early confirmation in price. Here are 7 examples I have on right now. A thread:

1/ The trend: climate change & growing Chinese wealth. The misconception: agriculture prices will always go down due to improved crop productivity. The Shock: Locust plague in Africa & water scarcity. The Trade: Long Cocoa Futures versus Hershey. The Confirmation:
2/ The trend: nationalism and Realpolitik. The misconception: ESG investing will halt investment in defense stocks. The Middle East is calming. The shock: Biden engaging with Taiwan. Kamala saying Assad needs to go. The trade: Defense stocks vs Russia and Saudi. The confirmation:
3/ The trend: state run markets. The misconception: the government will flex its muscles to benefit cloud, internet, and social media more than the genome sector. The shock: Moderna and Pfizer solving a $5 trillion+ problem with gene editing. The trade: ARKG vs ARKW. The chart:
4/ The trend: collapse in US soft power, business friendly dynamics. The misconception: capital will stay in the US instead of moving internationally. The shock: RCEP signed without the US - free trade zone in Southeast Asia. The trade: long Singapore (EWS) short R2K. Chart:
5/ The trend: obscene monetary debasement/fiscal expansion. The misconception: gold is the best expression. EM central banks have $ to buy more gold. The shock: electric vehicles driving nickel shortage. AstraZ failure = bad for EM. The trade: long Nickel hedged with gold.
6/ The trend: politicization of central banking. The misconceptions: central banks can endlessly absorb 30 year issuance. central banks can't buy whatever bonds they want. The shock: stimulus checks & green ECB statement. The trade: green short term debt vs US long term debt.
7/ The trend: true monetary unification of the Euro. The misconception: the Germans will profit from the ECB's climate shift and effective bailouts of the peripherals. The shock: massive peripheral debt purchases, discussion of Jubilee. The trade: Spain & Portugal vs Germany
8/ All trades have fundamentals, data, and a constant stream of news flow I can monitor 24/7. Most are in very liquid markets so I can get out fast. I'm constantly looking to be wrong. Soros said at his Google lecture that his most prized ability was changing his mind quickly.
9/ I'll leave you with George Soros' own words of the 8 parts of a boom bust process. Good luck trading.

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Still wondering about this 🤔


save as q
1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.