Thread: Brazil is ranked number two in the world lists of Covid fatalities, behind the USA. But that is almost certainly wrong. Mexico is almost surely number two. And in this story, we explain why. https://t.co/xeKgkMU1kJ via @WSJ

Mexico is failing to accurately record the majority of those who die from Covid. How do we know? Because the surge of excess deaths in 2020 in Mexico was roughly 2.4 times the official Covid toll. On Dec 12, excess deaths were 274,486 compared to Covid toll of 113,704.

Some of the additional deaths, of course, may not be Covid but from people who put off treatment for chronic disease, for instance. But health experts say the majority of those were likely killed by Covid. Other countries have a far smaller gap between excess deaths and Covid.

In Brazil, excess deaths for last year were 200,270 by Nov 21. The Covid toll by that date was 168,989, a far smaller gap than Mexico. That means Brazil is likely doing a far better job accurately counting its Covid dead.

A big difference is testing. Mexico carries out fewest tests in the Americas. It has only done 3.6 million tests during the entire pandemic. Brazil has done nearly 29 million. Mexico's coronavirus czar @HLGatell says widespread testing is a waste of time and resources.