Happy #JobsDay. 8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%

But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.

+245K jobs gained last month (mid-Oct to mid-Nov).

Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.

This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.

We are down 9.8 million jobs since Feb and growth is decelerating, likely to turn negative over the current month.

For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs.

We lost 9.19 million jobs over the last 12 months.

We gained 245K last month (0.2 million). This is half the growth rate over the last 3 months and an eight of the growth rate over the last 6 months.

Deceleration is clear.