Here's a theory that I think helps explain:

- How Instagram won the first attention war
- Why there will never be another mixed-format feed
- Why TikTok is so dominant
- Why Clubhouse has a huge advantage over Spaces
- How Spaces can still win, but why Fleets can't

🧵...

⚔️ Smartphones unleashed 3 distinct attention wars.

Media apps ("social" or otherwise) can only *effectively* compete in 1, and must fight every other player in that particular arena for a finite pool of attention.

The battle lines were drawn by our sensory constraints.

Often we can look but not listen, other times we can listen but not look. And sometimes we can give our phones 100% of our sensory attention.

There can only be 1 or 2 winners du jour in each attention war because media is a supply-driven marketplace with crazy strong network effects.

The best creators will invest in whatever platform offers the most attention to harvest into social capital.

In each war, there is 1 clearly dominant format — whatever is most engaging based on the sensory constraints.

If you can look but not listen, photos win.

If you can listen but not look, audio is the only format.

With no constraints, video wins.