It's Friday afternoon, it's dark outside and school is over for the week. Let me tell you some truths about markets in 2021

The consensus view this year is all pervasive. Everything I see and read is based upon it. Parts of it may eventually come true, but it's not going to be sunshine and rainbows

To summarise, the mechanical recovery taking place will become self-sustaining as vaccines and "pent-up demand" combine to lead to an orgy of consumerism

Of course this is a very American fantasy because elsewhere, no one expects anything of the sort to happen, not least Europe or Japan, where we'll continue to be frugal

To add to this we have the Fed "backstopping" the market and a new Democratic administration stuffing cash into the hands of people who already have money