🧵on the Toronto area SGTF (S-Gene Target Failure) study to detect B117 (UK variant). It looked at 11,485 positive tests over Dec 16 to Feb 3 and found 448 had SGTF* (3.9%). These charts show the growth.
https://t.co/5L8tF0MwDv

2. Note: Not every SGTF is B117 but almost all were confirmed with WGS (whole genomic sequencing). Rt for the SGTF was 1.17, non-SGTF were .82 meaning SGTF had an Rt 44% higher. This means that B117 is growing quickly (80% per week in recent weeks) and is projected to overtake

3. the old variants around Feb 20th in the Toronto area. Because the Rt (reproduction number) was only .82 without B117, we know the lockdown was working well in Toronto. It's only because the variant was a small share that infections and cases fell. If it had reached 100%,

4. then every infection would have infected 1.17 more infections and we would have had exponential growth EVEN IN LOCKDOWN where we have seen cases plummet.

5. This data is for the Toronto area. The projections have uncertainty - Feb 20 is approximate but once B117 becomes increasingly dominant over the next 6 weeks, current lockdown efforts would be hard-pressed to stop R from moving above 1, meaning an exponential growth in cases.

Prediction: the Ontario govt led by Premier Ford and Dr. Williams has been consistent: they want businesses open as much as possible. They will be getting an earful from their backers. We should therefore expect an unscientific, irrational decision to open up much too early.

To do this, they will push hard to reopen schools since the workforce needed for these businesses can't work without school and day care for kids. They will lean on arguments like child mental health, business suffering, and improved safety inspections. They will gaslight experts

They may even resort to more open letters from mayors, business associations, and business petitions. They might even resort to pointing out how well Ontario is doing vs even worse countries or states. They will leave PHU's to make local decisions without support.

They may even resort to directing rapid test inventory to manufacturing sector workplaces, even though those sectors (eg auto parts) have little to do with "essential". They may even direct vaccines to "essential workers" over the 60+ at home vulnerable.

They may even horde federal dollars to focus them on businesses vs programs like paid sickness benefits or expanded testing. Past behaviour points to future behaviour.