THREAD
What is overlooked in analysis of #RussiaProtest after @navalny's arrest? It's sophistication that the Kremlin has developed in addressing such threats, and lack of realistic strategy by Putin's opponents. Let's put together some unpleasant facts 👇
2/ Of course, it's hard not to be impressed by @navalny's and his family's courage, as well as by energy and scale of protests on January 23. Good summary by @yaffaesque for @NewYorker here:
3/ @navalny's investigation about Putin's palace (>96 million views now!) and street protests are seen as a serious challenge by the Kremlin, which is visible in heavy-handed crackdown on Navalny's team&family, as @HenryJFoy & @maxseddon document here:
4/ Jan 23 protest had the widest geographic coverage (>120 cities all across Russia), and the crowd numbers were significant, particularly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. It's important to note that the price tag for unsanctioned rallies is now higher than before...
5/... and protesters risk much more than 100k people who came to Bolotnaya Square in Moscow back in 2011. Add COVID, and 40k crowd (@Reuters estimate) in the capital will look like a success. But here comes the tricky part.