Shubham51ngh Authors Shravan Venkataraman 🔥🚀💰
7 days
30 days
All time
Recent
Popular
Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?
That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.
I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.
Thread below 👇👇
1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.
If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.
This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.
2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.
This is classic hot-hand fallacy.
Each ball's outcome is independent.
The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).
These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.
This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.
3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.
These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".
That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.
I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.
Thread below 👇👇
Let's say you see a cricketer hit four 6's in a row.
— Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0 (@theBuoyantMan) December 30, 2020
If you have to bet on the next ball's outcome, what would you bet on?
1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.
If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.
This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.
2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.
This is classic hot-hand fallacy.
Each ball's outcome is independent.
The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).
These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.
This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.
3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.
These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".