1/ Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (Annie Duke)

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"World-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future."

https://t.co/Nr2zCrVve3

2/ "We can get better at separating outcome quality from decision quality, say “I’m not sure,” learn strategies to map out the future, become less reactive, build and sustain pods of fellow truthseekers, and recruit our past and future selves to make fewer emotional decisions."

3/ "Mistakes, emotions, losing—those things are all inevitable because we are human. The approach of thinking in bets moved me toward objectivity, accuracy, and open-mindedness. That movement compounds over time to create significant changes in our lives."

4/ "Most people didn’t want to give Carroll credit for having any reason at all for his call. Why did so many people so strongly believe he got it wrong?

"In four words: the play didn't work.

"He had control over the quality of the decision but not over how it turned out."

5/ "Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable. When we say, “I should have known,” or, “I should have seen it coming,” we are succumbing to hindsight bias: an overly tight connection between outcomes and decisions."