By being unabashedly open you make yourself so predictable and familiar that it is almost impossible to respect or fear you, and power will not accrue to a person who cannot inspire such emotions.

$JD Health and $BABA AliHealth

$JD Health and $BABA Ali Health are $JD and $BABA's newest competition ground and the two biggest online medical platforms in China . Here is a thread on the things you need to know for $JD health and $Ali health.

Let’s get started! 👇👇

1. Problem
China have MANY medical problems. These include: poor structure of the Chinese medical system, inadequate/unequal resources, long waiting time, expensive medical services, sub-par medical quality and insufficient or unskilled medical staff.

2. Long waiting time
It is very inconvenient to visit a doctor in China unless you go to expensive private ones. There is not a clear distinction between a GP and a specialist, causing many elderlies, to crowd the hospital even when they only have a small medical issue.

2.1 A typical hospital visit in China may take up to 2-3 hours, half a day, or even a full day. You can basically image a Chinese hospital is like your favorite next door grocery stores constantly at 120%-200% capacity.

3. Medical Expenditure
Although the Chinese medical system has been improving, it is still unorganised and inefficient, causing medical services/medicine to be ‘expensive’, especially to low-income earners in China. Medical service is more expensive in China than the US % wise.

$DADA and $JD

$DADA's goal is to empower stores to have the ability to deliver everything to their customers within an hour on-demand. $JD owns 51% of $DADA. Here is a thread on the things you need to know as a $DADA or $JD investor.

Let's get started 👇👇

1. The Chinese E-commerce Market – Growth
The China E-commerce market has grown rapidly over the past decade and is poised to continue to grow for the coming decades.

2. China E-commerce as a % of total sales
Despite strong growth, Chinese E-commerce share has only taken up 24.9% of the total retail sales in consumer goods in 2020. There is still great potential in the coming 5-10 years in Chinese E-commerce.

3. The 3 phrases of E-commerce in China
The first phrase of E-commerce is when products are delivered in days, the second phrase delivered under 24 hours, and the third phrase, ‘on-demand’, products are being delivered within an hour. China is currently entering the third phase.

4. On-Demand Delivery Orders
China has experienced rapid growth in total on-demand delivery orders over the past couple years. As of 2019, there are more than 18 billion total on-demand orders delivered, a growth of 36.93%.

@suru27 The number of pets that we spot while morning and evening walks have noticeably increased over the last few months. These companions are great in emotional support, and a natural therapy for 🧠

@PuneethBM1 HPCL and GAIL are customers of ISGEC Heavy #ISGEC

@varinder_bansal

think different

src: intelligent investor

Hide your intentions not by closing up (with the risk of appearing secretive, and making people suspicious) but by talking endlessly about your desires and goals - just not your real ones.

What should your goal be as an investor?

@Tom_Voltz1 1/

That’s a possibility.

Buffett has this concept of “owner earnings”: how much cash can be safely taken out of a business each year without hurting it?

Take out more than this, and we risk hurting the business’s competitive position, earning power, unit volume, etc.

2/

At the same time, leaving capital in a terrible business is not a great idea either. It’s like throwing good money after bad.

In fact, directing capital away from textiles (a bad business) and into insurance (a better business) is one reason for Berkshire’s success.

/End

The US averaged over 2 million airline travelers a day over the last week for the first time since March 7, 2020.

We're now only 21% below pre-covid airline travel levels and closing the gap fast. With business travel accounting for roughly 12% of total airline travel, we may not see a full recovery until businesses resume their pre-covid travel routine (which may not happen).

@varinder_bansal Brazil sugar production down by 14% because of severe drought.India is the 2nd largest sugar producer followed by Brazil.
So a little postive news for sugar Comapnies based in India

Takeaway from the Q4 results #shreerenuka
1. Company has incurred losses on Q4 due to an exceptional item.
2. Cash from operating activities is negative.
3.Revenue from operations for this Q4 is down on QoQ basis
4. Company has incurred losses in year due to some exceptionalitem

Some positive news-
1.Revenue for operations from its ethanol segment has increased.
2.They will benefited from government scheme of MAEQ as Brazil production is down by 14%.
3.They will also receive incentives for ethanol blending so they have proposed to increase the capacity

From 720KLPD to 1400KLPD.
Government has a target of ethanol blending to 20% by 2025 against a current blending of 7.79%.So demand will be more and they will also incentives.
Company has raised around $300 million through ECB from its promoters.
So we can see a turnaround

Remember they are backed by a giant promoter and the capacity to 1400KLPD has been approved.#sugarind #shreerenuka @sanjiv_bhasin @varinder_bansal

Your portfolio will naturally concentrate itself, the way it should be, into your winners if you just stay out of the way.

10 machine learning questions you should be able to answer.

I started experimenting with a questionnaire before interviewing candidates. Applicants submit a video or written answers to apply for the position.

Thread: Let's look at 10 of these questions.

The questionnaire solves a couple of problems:

1. Weeds out candidates that aren't ready for the job.

2. It significantly cuts down the time we spend talking synchronously.

One problem: It requires extra time from the candidate before the phone interview.

Here are some numbers on a job posting before using the questionnaire:

• 249 applicants
• 13 good applications

That's only 5%.

This sucks.

Numbers after using the questionnaire:

• 44 applicants
• 21 good applications

That's 47%.

This is much better.

I look at it this way:

Sooner or later, I'll ask these questions, and the candidate will have to answer them.

I'd rather give them space and the opportunity to think about their answers without any pressure.

Those who can't or don't want to answer won't apply. That's fine.

The quality of covering letters has come such a long way. Awesome to see the ambition and aspiration.

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

Reverse DCF calculator is now available on Tijori

You can edit the earnings field, discount rate and terminal multiple to any value you like. Below is an example of Astral Pipes

Hope its useful to gauge optimism being baked into the current price!

https://t.co/Y6iV8LVLzT