BC POLITICS
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

"Fifty-nine percent of those polled said they believed China will become more powerful than the U.S. within 10 years" - https://t.co/3vN4I1TjwP ... I hate to break it to you but it already is in many areas.

 When I published this work (originally from 2015) - https://t.co/GYOItA3StZ - I did tend to get a lot of pushback from US folk when presenting it.

Six years later, less so.
I expect China to start to tackle inequality this year. It's the Achilles heel of the West. We have no response, nor Governments with the required skill, strategy or practice to respond.

We will ultimately face a more advanced, more wealthy and more equal society ...
... as that example of what "is possible" / "good looks like" shift to the East, we will face a painful shift as we question our own values including our kind of democracy. But in reality, the problem is not with our values but our shockingly poor standards of leadership.
X : Is this because of Trump?
Me : No, this has been going on since the 1990s. There has been no effective counterplay to the long game that Deng Xiaoping started. Just hubris, arrogance and exceptionalism with annual Economist articles on "How China will fall".
X : What can the West do?
Me : Nothing sensible other than to adapt. Longer term, you need to get rid of concepts like the "playing fields of Eton" and revitalise leadership. Start with the whole "Me" vs "We" discussion. It'll be a long journey.
X : Do you think the West will do this?
Me : You can either do good and educate people or you can manipulate perception and behaviour. The latter is now so cheap (thanks social media), that we will probably respond with more manipulation and denial until it is unsustainable.
X : Why do you think this?
Me : Any discussion (including "Me" vs "We") ultimately will lead you to the woeful state of leadership. You're asking me why a bunch of "leaders" are going to try to avoid any discussion on woeful leadership? Because they don't believe it ...
... they get paid lots of money, we live in a meritocracy and hence they must be good. Or at least, that's what their internal logic will tell them. Inertia and denial are powerful forces.
X : I'd argue that even the supposed internet advantage is not so true.
Me : "Today", in that table, was 2015. We're half way through it.
X : How quickly can the West respond?
Me : It's a long game. You'd have to rewire education especially in the US. Even basic economic understanding is distorted through belief in that culture's past success. So, unlikely in your lifetime even if you set off with good speed.
X : What does that mean?
Me : The next hundred years belong to China. Learn to adapt.
X : What about the pandemic?
Me : China "managed" it last year. They're rapidly growing - https://t.co/rt18db5jW0 ... we're still messing around with not doing lockdown properly, failing on test and trace, not learning, arguing over masks and hoping vaccines will sort it all out.
X : You're not very patriotic,
Me : Quite the opposite. I believe that love is best shown by a willingness to have those difficult conversations and not by pretending that everything is great.
X : GDP is a dreadful measure of the economy.
Me : True but generally people only say that when they don't like what it is saying. If they like what it is saying then it's an excellent measure.
X : But is China's growth sustainable?
Me : Watch China start to "tackle inequality"
X : What about Alibaba?
Me : Exceptional economic play, mixed model with context. Hats off to China Gov.
X : West produce better corporate decision quality.
Me : I would look at Haier, Alibaba and others. There are only a few corporates keeping the West in the game e.g. Amazon which Western Gov's are always talking about "splitting up" because ... well, it's the daft thing to do?
X : How does UK fix this?
Me : How to improve our position?
X : Yes.
Me : You need to find your Deng Xiaoping. Your problem is that she is likely to be living on a council estate, trying to hold down two jobs in a pandemic to feed the family and you've got no way of finding her.
X : The alternative?
Me : Do what we always do. Pay some big name management consultancy or think tank to write a report.
X : Will that help?
Me : No but it's all we know. Long path before we can fix this. Just adapt and try to learn from China.
X : Inequality isn’t a problem.
Me : Oh yes it is ... https://t.co/F3lpviYBGc ... especially since we live in a system governed by luck and power laws rather than some form of meritocracy based upon talent and ability.

More from Simon Wardley

Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : When is #mapcamp happening this year?
Me : Wed, Oct 13th.
X : What's the plan?
Me : Right now? Find some funding.

X : How much do you need?
Me : For a 1500 - 3000 person online event? Back of envelope calculation ... about £50k to make it happen. LEF has kindly sponsored it for the last few years but we now need to stand it up on its own two feet.

X : What does that mean?
Me : Like all events, it's a risk profile. So, today the chance of #mapcamp happening is 0%, as we raise some funds, identify costs and find ways of reducing costs etc then that chance increases to a point that we can say ... yep, we can do this.

X : What about ticket sales?
Me : Nothing can ever be guaranteed, so you have to position it to the point that if everything goes wrong the liability is acceptable. Ask me in a month then I'll have a better idea.

X : If it's all about cost, reducing liability etc ... why does anyone run an event?
Me : For the same reason we speak at events. We love the subject. If you didn't then you'd be mad.
SOCIETY
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : We need to adapt to our new reality.
Me : A question?
X : Should we start with organisation or operating model first?
Me : Neither. Start with doctrine i.e. basic principles of your company. This will lead you to landcape which will lead you to structure + operating model.


X : Don't we need to get the structure right though?
Me : Structure against what? If you don't understand the landscape that you operate in then how do you structure around it? How do you decide what your operating model is? Awareness comes first and that needs those principles.

X : Explain?
Me : Pretend you're running a tea shop (I'm a Brit, I like tea shops). First thing you need to do is to know who your users are - the public, the business for example (there are more like regulators etc).


... but just knowing the users is not enough, you need to know what they need i.e. a cup of tea, maybe something more like entertainment or a nice piece of fruitcake


... but just knowing what they need is not enough, you need to know what goes into making a cup of tea, the chain of chains that it is built upon. You need to know the details ...
LIFE
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Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Can you apply pace layers to maps?
Me : You can but what is where evolves. However, same rules apply to things, practices, data, knowledge and ethical values. All are forms of evolving capital. In the mapping world, we refer to this with pioneers, settlers and town planners.


X : What's the robot for?
Me : Image from an older presentation slide, don't worry it has no relevance.
X : Is this linked to diffusion?
Me : Not simply. Evolution of a single component can consist of many hundreds of diffusion curves i.e. a virus diffuses but it also evolves.

X : Why have you got DevOps in legacy? We haven't even started yet.
Me : That's not my problem. I would take a look at serverless.
X : DevOps is serverless.
Me : Some of the practices maybe co-opted (see ITIL vs DevOps) but the new faction will decide what it is or isn't.

X : I also disagree with your methods graphic.
Me : Do you mean this? As applied to the following map?
X : Yes. Lean is suitable for innovation.
Me : Ah, that depends upon what you mean by innovation. If you mean Genesis then lightweight XP has it beat.


X : I disagree.
Me : Well, I've had 15 years of people telling me that Agile works everywhere or Lean works everywhere or Six Sigma works everywhere and why all the competing methods don't. I have no interest in the conversation. Use appropriate methods based upon context.
INTERNET
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Thoughts on private companies being on the boards of ICS (integrated care systems).
Me : Conflict of interest question? Supplier determining needs?
X : Yes
Me : It's ok, as long as
a) you have effective spend control
b) those private companies are JVs which Gov owns 51% of.

X : What if they are not 51% owned JVs?
Me : Ah, that's a bad idea. You really want your boards to have your interests at heart.
X : What about experience, partnership?
Me : Those are advisors and you take it with a pinch of salt and as much as possible use critical friends.

Suppliers will always tell you that they want to be your partners, to build a relationship, to be your friends, to find the win/win in much the same way a second hand car salesperson wants to be your buddy ... but their interests are not yours and never can be.

X : Critical friends?
Me : Occassionaly you can find critical friends. People that we willing to tell you the truth as they see it regardless of the consequences. They are not very common and it normally requires a deep sense of duty that exceeds any loyalty to others.

X : Can the relationship be symbiotic?
Me : Rarely but that depends. If the organisation has a core overiding principle of focusing on the customer need and I don't mean lip service to this but absolutely embedded into its very core then yes i.e. places like Amazon, Alibaba etc.
GOVERNMENT
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
To gauge the maturity of an organisation, use the doctrine table


To gauge how evolved a component is within the value chain, use the cheat sheet


Obviously, the cheat sheet isn't relevant to organisations that haven't matured enough to understand their users, user needs, the details (value chain) nor understand what is being considered (how evolved the components are) i.e. all those phase I basics of doctrine.

Likewise, those basic economic patterns used for anticipation of change are fairly pointless without phase I to II of doctrine in place


and there is no point in talking strategic gameplay or organisational change until you've got most of the doctrine (phase I to III) up and working
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cort...
@Ocasio2018
All the challenges to Leader Pelosi are coming from her right, in an apparent effort to make the party even more conservative and bent toward corporate interests.

Hard pass. So long as Leader Pelosi remains the most progressive candidate for Speaker, she can count on my support.


I agree that our party should, and must, evolve our leadership.

But changed leadership should reflect an actual, evolved mission; namely, an increased commitment to the middle + working class electorate that put us here.

Otherwise it’s a just new figure with the same problems.

I hope that we can move swiftly to conclude this discussion about party positions, so that we can spend more time discussing party priorities: voting rights, healthcare, wages, climate change, housing, cannabis legalization, good jobs, etc.
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John Hayward
John Hayward
@Doc_0
Funny, before the election I recall lefties muttering the caravan must have been a Trump setup because it made the open borders crowd look so bad. Why would the pro-migrant crowd engineer a crisis that played into Trump's hands? THIS is why. THESE are the "optics" they wanted.


This media manipulation effort was inspired by the success of the "kids in cages" freakout, a 100% Stalinist propaganda drive that required people to forget about Obama putting migrant children in cells. It worked, so now they want pics of Trump "gassing children on the border."

There's a heavy air of Pallywood around the whole thing as well. If the Palestinians can stage huge theatrical performances of victimhood with the willing cooperation of Western media, why shouldn't the migrant caravan organizers expect the same?

It's business as usual for Anarchy, Inc. - the worldwide shredding of national sovereignty to increase the power of transnational organizations and left-wing ideology. Many in the media are true believers. Others just cannot resist the narrative of "change" and "social justice."

The product sold by Anarchy, Inc. is victimhood. It always boils down to the same formula: once the existing order can be painted as oppressors and children as their victims, chaos wins and order loses. Look at the lefties shrieking in unison about "Trump gassing children" today.
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President Elect Bloc R...
@BlocRockinTees
Prepare to have your mind blown. https://t.co/QKvDLVx8KG Lin Wood, Isaac Kappy Here’s what we know
1. Lin Wood shares the password
2. Website has an article where the first letter of each sentence matches password
3. Title of article is an anagram for issac kappy


4. Somehow the file is stored in tor because of the reference to torsocks
5. Nobody has done an in depth analysis of the source code to see if there’s any hints there
6 search engine searches for slack, tor, and website returned nothing

https://t.co/lCajyM4TWp @sistronk @Crazy_German17 @boy17_tommy @105artillery @thecoffeebarons @Mareq16 @MKEBRAWLER @RealMaciejHelak @C8red8r @FabianBlondel @LaureenZapf

https://t.co/4tUs7tESwg

Silicon Valley is modelled after Crassus
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David Burney
David Burney
@jdburney1
What does "patriots in control" mean?
What would that "look like" in reality?


So a massive adult film star in all his glory is included in an official FBI government filing


Hunter Biden's book is categorized as "Chinese


TIME admits to "conspiracy" to "not rig, rather


A "pillow guy" has military-grade intercepts detailing the IP addresses and device MAC IDs of EVERY incursion into every county in the
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Jean-Michel Connard
Jean-Michel Connard
@torriangray
so my eldest brother, who is a moron, has been playing soldier with his moron friends in the deserts of texas for the last year preparing for the collapse of civilization if biden won (lol). they were burying food and ammo stashes out in the desert, running drills, crazy stuff

this included getting a cb license so he could be their lifeline to other groups of white idiots when the cell towers all went offline. wouldn't want to violate federal law while communicating with your resistance groups after the fall of the federal government i guess.

anyways, you would assume given that they've been prepping for the end of the world for at least a year they're well situated to ride out the rolling blackouts right?

wellll

their plan for cooking and heating during an extended power outage was natural gas, but like a lot of homes their gas service is out. the food in their freezer and fridge is already toast due to the power outrages, so they're down to canned stuff, but there's a catch.

they can get into the pull top cans just fine, but the ones that require an opener? their only can opener is electric. so a good 3/4 of his canned food store is inaccessible to him unless he goes after it with a knife, which i sincerely hope he does.
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I'm going to attempt to chronologically list all of the Marvel characters Stan Lee had a hand in creating. Working with his genius collaborators, Stan and his team produced an insane amount of iconic characters in a roughy ten year period. (Thread)


With his younger brother, writer Larry Lieber, and Jack "the King" Kirby:

Groot

Tales to Astonish #13 (November, 1960)


With writer Lieber, and artist Kirby:

Fin Fang Foom

Strange Tales #89 (October, 1961)


With the King, Stan gives birth to the Marvel Universe:

The Fantastic Four

Fantastic Four #1 (November, 1961)


With Jack Kirby:

Mister Fantastic

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Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


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yashstocks
yashstocks
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(1/3)

I am using only one indicator in the chart.
i.e DC(20) = Donchain Channel
I use 3 min chart and the DC period is 20, so DC high is basically the last 1 hour high & DC low is the last 1 hour low.
The middle line is the median of high and low.


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If nifty is breaking DC high, can take bullish view.
if it is breaking DC down, can take bearish view.
if it is in between, can trade range-bound.

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Jeet Heer
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1. Now that Stan Lee is being eulogized far and wide, it's important to remember how marginal Stan Lee and his collaborators (Jack Kirby and Steve Ditko) were in the 1950s and 1960s.

2. Marvel Comics (before that Atlas) was just a cog in the machine of a bottom pulp publisher run by Martin Goodman, the husband of one of Lee's cousins. It was the lowest of the low in the publishing world.

3. Now Mario Puzo (not yet the author of the Godfather) shared offices with Stan Lee in the 1950s and 1960s. Puzo wrote for garrish men's adventure magazines and, like Lee, dreamed of writing a novel & breaking out. But Puzo looked down on Lee.

4. Flo Steinberg, 1960s secretary at Marvel: "They were always making jokes about us. They'd come in and giggle. mario Puzo would look in and would see us all working on his way to the office and say, 'Work faster, little elves. Christmas is coming.'"

5. When JFK was killed, the whole office of Magazine Management was stunned and quiet. Except Lee. He continued working. "He was still working on the comic books," Puzo said. "Like that was the most important thing in the world."
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Groww
Groww
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You want to buy a house.

You take a loan from the bank.

The bank asks you, “what if you don’t pay back?”

You say, “take my home and sell it”.

(Thread)

That makes sense. The bank gives you a loan and in case you don’t pay, the bank will take over your house and sell it and recover its money.

That’s collateral.

Banks also lend money to big corporations. With them, banks don’t always have collateral.

So a loan where the bank has collateral is considered safer for the bank.

In the early 2000s, the banks in the USA were giving out loans to people for buying houses.

The economy had just recovered from the tech bubble in 2000 where many banks had given out loans to businesses that had shut down.

In that backdrop, the banks found giving home loans safer.
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