BNF made a low of 33606 and high of 34815 in this weekly expiry. On all three days it closed below VWAP. Also on all three days its closing very near to 34200 levels. U can see all these levels in below picture.

We all know by now that 34000-34800 is the range of BNF for last few days and hence people shorting OTM options outside this range will make money. Lets dig a bit deep more.

Now see the things one by one

On 20/5/22 this strangle closed at 908 with OI value of Rs 1.22 ,

then on 23/5/22 this strangle closed at 790 with OI value of Rs .80 and finally today it closed at 462 with OI value of Rs 2.09.

This strangle holds the maximum OI in the chain with support and resistance marked which gives us a range of 33538-34962 for this expiry. Frankly

speaking this straddle looks very safe and personally I wont think that todays seller of this strangle will panick ever. Now few more data points, since the start of this weekly expiry Pain points below 34100 is constantly decreasing.

On 20/5 break of this PE was making Rs 3,06,01,91,770.00 in danger and then it reduced to Rs 2,81,17,02,460.00 on 23/5/22 and today its at 2,75,72,14,637.50 . This gives us a idea that PE seller are not confident on their position and hence getting out gradually.

Option Chain is janampatri of CE and PE activity in the market. On a day when BNF moved 750 points we expect huge CE unwinding and good PE writing across the board. It becomes more important when the rally is coming from almost good low and against all round bearish view.

Today weekly OC is showing a sign of COMPLEXITY among the CE writer. Top 10 CE writer holds value to the tune of Rs 237,756,1591/- while PE writing hold value to the tune of Rs 145,980,0081/-. So in top 10 OI , writing in CE is more than PE . And this is after 750 points upmove.

This is quite surprising. It means the CE seller expect market to had made temp top today and dont expect the CE to hit new high tomorrow above today high. This is super conviction on their part. So what may happen tomorrow??? Either they win with their conviction or loose out.

Yehi toh !! Kya toh BNF upar jayga ya niche. But there in lies some catch, we will move one by one. The attached picture shows you that if BNF travels above 34500 tomorrow then these Rs 188,199,0251/- will be trapped and above 34700 the value goes up to Rs 237,756,1591/-

These values are simply huge. CE and PE writer provides balance to the market. The huge Expiry moves happens (where Rs 20 option becomes Rs 100-200) because of this imbalance. Today EOD data is already showing that imbalance for CE writer. Any sustainable upmove with CE

Lets see what happened on HDFC on 4/4/22 when it opened 10% gap up on merger news.

At EOD price rose by 9.36% while OI fell by 4.90%. Refer below table on OI and Price Interpretation. It was a clear case of smart money using the upmove to exit the trade

Below is the 15m chart of HDFC on 4/4/22. Yellow line is VWAP line . You can see after 11.00 AM the stock traded below VWAP through out the day. And if you are a smart trader, u know the game has been set there only. Also see the volume on selling side throughout the day in lower

panel.

Actually talking on lay man terms....Business of HDFC is giving home loan and other loans. They were buying money from Bond market or other resources at 5-6% minimum rate and then lending those money to retail client at 1-2% addl profit.

After merger, they will get dirt cheap Savings money of retailer at 2-3% rate, so the money which they was getting at 5-6% is now getting at 2-3%. So straightway decrease in cost to the extent of minimum 30-45%.

Still both the stocks getting sold !!!

Really something is wrong somewhere. And I want to be wrong here, but prices are speaking something bad is cooking.

PS: I did the layman merger advantage of HDFC/HDFCBank as a panwala knowledge

Lets do today EOD data analysis.

We will do in it a 4 step process.
We will see BNF OI total and OI change during the day for both Weekly and monthly strike.

Lets start :

BNF Weekly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Weekly : OI Change during the day

BNF Monthly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Monthly : OI Change during the day

@sachinghitm Sorry, these Tweets are old and cannot be unrolled.

If it seems to be a mistake, please contact us via DM.

Lets See the status of Nifty and Bank Nifty and its major stock. The stock which moves both the index. We will use AVWAP across time frame to derive whether stock is weak or strong. We will use Quaterly AVWAP/Monthly AVWAP/Yearly AVWAP and March 20 AVWAP.

T-1 Psychology behind the formation of a candle - personally I feel that if one is aware of psychology behind the formation of candle than chart starts talking to you. So, here I am starting my journey of 🧵 with how actually candles form. Small but important for beginners 👇

Hammer - formed at the end of downtrend, opened sellers pushed the prices down, buyers came & pushed the prices up & close the candle above the OP. Shadow formed twice of body. Also observed at trend line & support zone. 👇

Shooting Star - formed at the end of uptrend, opened buyers pushed the price up, sellers came & pushed the price down and make candle close below the OP. Both hammer & shooting star should always be traded with the confirmation from next candle. 👇

Bullish Engulfing- formed after a downtrend. Price opened below the previous candle, buyers came and form a big green candle above the previous candle high if both candles merge can form a hammer. 👇

Bearish Engulfing- formed after a uptrend. Price opened above the previous candle, sellers came & form a big red candle below the low of previous candle. Merging of both form a shooting star. 👇

Mega Thread on Exit Strategies (Long-Mid Term Portfolios) 👇

We talk about systematic exit a stock portfolio in a bear market in this 🧵

Most have made good profits in stock positions and its always good to be aware of what can be done when markets turn bearish

Read on.
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1. Death Cross (50MA Crossunder 200MA)

This is a popular method to judge whether the stock/index is in a bear or bull market.

Book profits at a death crossover

My view: Not the best way of exit, there are better, more refined ways.

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2. MA based Systematic Exit

MAs used:
21MA - 1 mnth avg.
65MA - 3 mnth avg.
150MA - 6 mnth avg.
250MA - 1 year avg.

Exit 25% if 21MA below 65MA
Exit 25% if 21MA below 150MA
Exit 50% if 21MA below 250MA

This method handles short term correction while having skin in game
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3. ATR based Stop (Supertrend, Chandelier Exit, Chande Kroll)

For positional exit, ATR based trailing stop can be used.
ATR multiples are 3(aggressive), 5(conservative) are used

My preference is exit 25% on ATR(20,5) breach daily, full position on ATR(20,3) breach wkly

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4. Ichimoku KUMO Breach

The KUMO cloud offers good support areas.
Exit 25% on breach of top of cloud
Do nothing while price inside the cloud
Exit FULL when price breaches cloud on downside

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