THE THIRD WAVE

Question: Has Mass Vaccination Decreased or Increased COVID-19 Mortality in Sweden?

Fundamentally, that question comes down to whether we believe the sharp and unexpected resurgence in the virus concomitant with the onset of mass vaccination was driven by mass vaccination, or we believe that is simply a coincidence.

Mass vaccination started in Sweden around the turn of the year. The rate of vaccination has been relatively slow compared to the US but, as in Florida, the campaign has prioritized the elderly. So, by now most of the population at risk of dying of COVID-19 have been vaccinated.

At the time the campaign started, COVID-19 was clearly in retreat, having peaked sometime in December. The magnitude of the fall/winter wave was in line with the "worst-case" scenario modeled by the FHM last summer.

So, at the time the vaccines were rolled out, the epidemic was behaving as expected, with a seasonal resurgence followed by decline as population immunity hit the higher threshold entailed by peak season R0s.