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I spoke with Chris Wood of Jefferies post US inflation data. 20 min chat on markets.

(Link - https://t.co/El8K1GOw2E)

TOP 25 takeaways,

1. Double whammy of higher rates & b/s tightening

2. Will be astonished if S&P-50 doesn’t fall by atleast 30% from peak

#StockMarket (1/8)

3. After a 30% fall S&P-500, market will become very receptive to any hints about Fed changing stance

4. A > than 30% fall would need markets to stay down & then big retail outflows

#StockMarket (2/8)

5. Key question is if Fed's changes language later this yr

6. Huge political pressure from Washington on Fed

7. All opinion polls in US show inflation No.1 issue for Americans

8. For 1st time in > 40 yrs, we have pressure from political establishment on Fed

#StockMarket (3/8)

9. U.S. consumer confidence has fallen dramatically, could be mix of inflation & stocks falling

10. Cash buffers with U.S. consumers built up during pandemic running thin now, could be losses in stocks or crypto

#StockMarket (4/8)

11. U.S. CPI will keep inflation story bubbling

12. May CPI will make the market assume that the next hike will be 50 bps

13. Problem is that the Fed is so far behind the curve, that they need to impose real rates now & they are nowhere close

#StockMarket (5/8)

In a business where the buying & selling price is fixed by the government, how is that the sugar stocks are rallying so much?

A thread 🧵 to learn how the sugar sector works. Do re-tweet and hence us educate more investors (1/n)

- Sugar is made out of Sugarcane
- The government fixes buying price (FRP – Fair & Remunerative price) for the mill from the farmers at 2.850/Kg
- Selling price is also fixed at Rs. 31/Kg (MSP – Minimum selling price) (2/n)

Lets understand the sector,

- Sugarcane purchased by the mill is crushed to remove the juice (exactly like you have sugarcane juice at a hotel)
- Juice is heated & boiled to remove sugar (3/n)

- The juice can be boiled upto 3 times to remove sugar. Each time it is boiled, sugar is removed, than some water is added and boiled again to remove more sugar (4/n)

- There are 2 by-products as well. The residue left behind after the boiling process is over is like a gum/paste called molasses & the fiber/stem of the sugarcane after juice is extracted (5/n)