BC LIFE
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Belief is a marriage between two functions of mind - emotion and explanation. It associates a feeling of confidence with an idea about how things are or should

 Why should we be wary and cautious about our sense of confidence about what we know?

For the same reason Bertrand Russell's (metaphoric anthropomorphic) chicken should have been wary about the benevolent farmer (see quote at end of thread).
Had it conceived alternative theories about the farmer feeding it, it may have acted differently and had a better life outcome.
Although unlike in Russell's chicken metaphor, belief is not necessarily a consequence of the error of induction. Strictly speaking, it never is (again, refer to quote at end thread).
However, when one believes without an accompanying explicit argument (theory), it prevents any possibility for critically questioning the reasons for the belief.
Therefore if we are mistaken, we deny the possibility of seeing how. This is particularly important when advocating for a course of action, and where predicted consequences from the belief are not easily and safely testable, as is the case for many social theories.
Of course, having an explicit argument is no guarantee the belief is correct. And it is no guarantee we will critically question our own argument. But it does at least present opportunity for someone else to show us, through argument, where they see we are mistaken.
Now, if I insist on having good reasons (a good argument) for holding a belief, what then is the difference between saying I believe compared with stating the claim or saying I know ?
In this way, it is possible to do away with the ambiguity in the concept of belief, and more importantly be able to separate a truth claim from a feeling of confidence about its truth value.
Furthermore, it liberates one's thinking such that one may entertain and follow an argument that one feels ought not be true. Thus opening opportunity to discover counter intuitive or paradoxical knowledge.
It shifts one from a mode of motivated reasoning to a mode of explorative objective reasoning. Temporarily unencumbered from our feelings about the problem situation.
What about when you want to express you are willing to bet (in principle) that a claim is true without having a great argument that it is?
No problem, there are alternative phrasings that communicate that idea: "I guess is true because ", "If is true, then might be true", and so on.
On the inductivist misconception from The Fabric of Reality, Ch3 by David Deutsch:

/end

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1/ there is this sense when you are young that your accomplishments need to be a list of things that seem impressive to others. A list of several items you did.

This isn't actually right, so here is another suggestion.

2/ I remember being 26 and writing about reading 52 books a year. I wrote blog posts about it. They got copied. It became "a thing." Now it's in Twitter bios. It looks impressive but it's insanely useless and I shouldn't have done it.

3/ what I should have known at that time is that only young idiots like myself, with no accomplishments, find list of tiny achievements impressive. Anyone who has actually done anything of substance doesn't gaf

4/ what is actually difficult, and worthwhile, instead is to do ONE single thing for a very, very long time. It's much harder and much rarer and results in outlier outcomes much more often.

Of course you can find this out too late if you are chasing the dragon of Ted talks etc

5/ if I had only worked on a startup for a year, I would've gotten nowhere, the same way that if you lift for 3 months, it achieves nothing. Everything good in life comes from perseverance, but at the beginning, you're just like "I need to be somebody!!!"
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Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy.

Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you.

Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.

You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom.
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I got my team together- about 8 of them- people in e-business, IT and other units that I know will have one thing or the other to do with this company.

I wanted to conclude in just one meeting. As the South African MD and his Israeli partner walked into my office where we were all seated and I stood up to exchange pleasantries with both of them, his eye went to the book on my table. 'Oh, you're reading Tipping Point?', he asked.

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I tell people one of my biggest fears is balloons, and obviously it's funny to imagine, until they see me have a psychotic break when one pops. I lose myself and it's terrifying. I don't know what it is about loud sudden sounds that hurts me, and it appears I'll never know.

I dread the 4th of July every year. My birthday parties were often held then. Recently I discovered if I wear earbuds and blast music with audio PPE on top I can stand to be outside. That first show where I could keep my hands free I held my best friend's hand and felt wondrous.

I'm crying just remembering discovering I could be happy underneath fireworks. I'll never understand why my parents didn't think to ever try to help me, and instead made me suffer for so long, feeling absolutely alone with this. Only once do I remember my mother comforting me.

It was a particularly bad year, a lot of college kids I think renting nearby camps, and I hid under my bed for hours. My mother came up and laid on my bed, dangled her hand down to show she was there, and sang to me. I was 15.
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they start out with hobi laying crosswise on the couch, and jk crawls between his legs, rests his head on hobi's sternum. he likes to cuddle like that because he can hear hobi's heartbeat. also hobi will usually skritch his scalp when they're in this position.

he's doing that now, running his fingers from jk's forehead to the nape of his neck, but then he scoops along jk's ear instead. fingertips smoothing along the shell curve and then gently tugging on his earlobe. he keeps doing it, repetitive. the apartment is warm.

and quiet, too, except for the doc in the bg and the soft sounds of their breathing. hobi's fingertips keep tugging easily, gently on his ear lobe and all of a sudden jk realizes he's getting hard. he doesn't pay it much mind, one or both of them often do when they cuddle, even

if it's just a cuddle session & not anything further. but then hobi moves his leg, feels it, laughs softly, & moves his leg again - this time, deliberately. jk smiles, rubbing his mouth against hobi's sweatshirt. he rolls his hips, real slow like, and feels hobi's dick, too.
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