https://t.co/q4focsfqlO
The Hawley-Cruz faction & most House GOP are now "Bleeding Kansas" Republicans:
I've been thinking about Kansas 1854-59 for a while.
Let's be clear about what happens when political parties reject elections and democracy:
Violence & bloodshed.
Thread.
The die is cast for the Republican Party. It will be destroyed on January 6th in much the same way the Whig party was destroyed by the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854. The act unraveled the Missouri compromise and allowed for the westward expansion of slavery. 1/
— Steve Schmidt (@SteveSchmidtSES) January 3, 2021
https://t.co/q4focsfqlO
Pro-slavery Missourians moved west into Kansas to vote for the westward expansion of slavery.
https://t.co/Q3I8aVC9kt
For example, in the 1854 Kansas election, one district had 161 voters. 30 were legal residents. 131 were no legal residents.
Unlike today, there was voter fraud, and it destroyed the legitimacy of elections.
https://t.co/t0fzTQ4cjW
John Brown rise up as an anti-slavery violence in revenge, killing 5 in the Pottawatomie massacre, then leading 2 more armed battles that summer.
In 1855, anti-slavery forces seated their own govt at Topeka and drafted a free-state Topeka Constitution, vs the pro-slavery Lecompton Constitution.
Kansas had 2 rival governments.
Kansas was a turning point in the rise of the Republican Party, as it was clear that the US couldnt resolve "half slave/half free" in western expansion via local elections.
And the result was increasing violence and murder.
Because partisan racist politicians ignored the legally investigated evidence, rejected democracy and denied free & fair elections in favor of lies and slavery.
@HawleyMO @tedcruz and their anti-democratic axis are tearing apart their party and risking the republic...
@TTuberville @SenatorLankford @MarshaBlackburn @SenatorBraun are the descendants of the pro-slavery forces of the 1850s who rejected democracy & led to widespread domestic violence.
On Christmas, a man believing right-wing-adjacent conspiracy theories detonated a massive truck bomb in Nashville.
Worse is now foreseeable.
More from Government
The Manatee-Sarasota area has many connections to the horrific scene of insurrection in Washington DC yesterday. Want to see? Buckle up for this thread: /1
The Manatee GOP expressed support for Josh Hawley’s objections to certification of the electoral college vote. /2
Josh Hawley’s home-state newspaper says Hawley has blood on his hands for a “Capitol coup attempt.” This is who the Manatee GOP cheered on.
Florida GOP Vice Chair & Sarasota County Commissioner Christian Ziegler was at the protest, as described in this @HeraldTribune article.
The protest was led by the same people connected to Ziegler who were filming outside the Vern Buchanan town hall at the Van Wezel in Sarasota in 2017, namely Dustin Stockton. Stockton was also part of Steve Bannon's border wall group. /5
https://t.co/NbOxVqbtO4
The Manatee GOP expressed support for Josh Hawley’s objections to certification of the electoral college vote. /2
Josh Hawley’s home-state newspaper says Hawley has blood on his hands for a “Capitol coup attempt.” This is who the Manatee GOP cheered on.
Florida GOP Vice Chair & Sarasota County Commissioner Christian Ziegler was at the protest, as described in this @HeraldTribune article.
The protest was led by the same people connected to Ziegler who were filming outside the Vern Buchanan town hall at the Van Wezel in Sarasota in 2017, namely Dustin Stockton. Stockton was also part of Steve Bannon's border wall group. /5
https://t.co/NbOxVqbtO4
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
