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Saved by @CodyyyGardner

As Mark Twain once said, "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Here's a thread that looks at Premier Kenney's claim that the international border testing pilot program of air travellers has been a "success." #ableg

 At his Jan. 1 presser, Kenney noted the the pilot program had a test positivity rate of 1.48% compared to an overall positivity rate from testing done in the province of about 7%. See video link at approximately 3:15: https://t.co/z90mJNTB8y
Indeed, Kenney's numbers for the pilot project are accurate. Of the 18,021 travellers who had participated as of December 17, 1.48% had tested positive after arriving in Alberta.https://t.co/KMX7RZdtnY
But was it appropriate to compare the results among travellers who were presumably screened before boarding and found asymptomatic to those from recent testing results among Albertans who are overwhelming if not entirely symptomatic or have had a known contact with the disease?
Perhaps, it would have been better if Kenney had compared those results to those done among similarly asymptomatic Albertans. As @CBCFletch noted in an October 23 tweet, 659,000 tests among people with no symptoms found a positivity rate of just 0.11%....
Using that comparison, which is arguable more apples to apples if not as current, the positivity rate among international travellers arriving in Alberta is more than 10 times the rate in the general population. That's an order of magnitude higher.
I'm no public health or statistics expert, but maybe @jkenney should be asked to justify his comparison at today's presser, and maybe @CMOH_Alberta could weigh in, too? #ableg
Kenney also cited Harvard study as evidence air travel is safe. That study cited positivity rates among passengers of less than <1 per cent where masks worn and <2 per cent when masks not worn. AB pilot project with masks and safety measures is 1.48%.
https://t.co/Qjm7LJe1SE
“Every time an airplane lands, more COVID is likely coming into the province,” says Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist. Premier Kenney claims risk of transmission on flights is "statistically insignificant," citing Harvard and DOD studies.
https://t.co/Nqs9VRdN4d
And here's @klaszus timely look in @sprawlcalgary at how Westjet lobbied for and got rapid testing pilot program in which 1.48% of air travellers arriving in Alberta test positive.
Oops, forgot to include the link! https://t.co/s14PB36pSP

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Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
The ten points of the Nuremberg Code
1) The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.

2) The experiment should be such as to yield fruitful results for the good of society, unprocurable by other methods or means of study, and not random and unnecessary in nature. 2/n

3) The experiment should be so designed and based on the results of animal experimentation and a knowledge of the natural history of the disease or other problem under study that the anticipated results will justify the performance of the experiment. 3/n

4) The experiment should be so conducted as to avoid all unnecessary physical and mental suffering and injury. 4/n

5) No experiment should be conducted where there is an a priori reason to believe that death or disabling injury will occur; except, perhaps, in those experiments where the experimental physicians also serve as subjects. 5/n
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)
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Defense News Nigeria
Defense News Nigeria
@DefenseNigeria
The people can always be brought to the bidding...tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the naysayers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.

Hermann Goring

We've seen reports of Yoruba leaders asking President Buhari to stop the war and sack service chiefs immediately as a way of beginning restructuring.Our country is sitting on a keg of gunpowder they claim. Once again partisan hacks want to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

You see, when you are fighting small limited wars there is a natural inclination , on the part of politicians not directly impacted by the war to want to blow things out of proportion. There is a basic disconnection now in this country between the population and the war

....and i find it quite frankly. Frightening. Compared to what was obtainable 2015, the security situation in Nigeria has vastly improved yet the media ..and partisan hacks portray a much more pessimistic narrative.

Consider that in 2015 over 21 Local government areas and 2.6 million Nigerians were cut off from the rest of the country, under the administration of a caliphate in Nigeria for 16 months. A huge chunk of the northeast was no mans country.
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Lunar Whale Rider
Lunar Whale Rider
@mistermegative
Ok. I’ve organized my thoughts about the revival of Six Days in Fallujah. I want to approach this through the lens of someone who was IN Fallujah during 2004-2005, during some of the worst urban combat US Forces have ever experienced.

Let’s get a few things out of the way: the invasion of Iraq was a war crime. Period. Argue otherwise and I’ll block you. Does that make myself and others who fought war criminals? No, of course not. Did individual soldiers and Marines commit war crimes? Absolutely.

I’m someone who is deeply proud of my service. I tried my hardest to conduct myself as humanely as possible. I’m also someone who was forced to do things I’m not proud of to survive. Taking lives should never be a point of pride.

Iraq was a failure of our own making. Not only did we invade illegally, we did it without a plan. The vast majority of the insurgency were disaffected Iraqi soldiers without a job after we broke apart their military, not religious fanatics.

Yes, groups like AQI showed up to fight, but they came after we handed them a major propaganda victory by showing up in the first place and turning PMCs like Blackwater loose. There was little to no cultural sensitivity training.
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FRSC, NIGERIA
FRSC, NIGERIA
@FRSCNigeria
VALENTINE DAY CELEBRATION: FRSC CAUTIONS MOTORISTS AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPEED, DRUNK DRIVING AND RECKLESSNESS ON THE ROAD.

Owing to the need to ensure a safe and crash free celebration during the 2021 Valentine Day celebration, the Federal Road Safety Corps has warned the teaming community of celebrants and other road users, to desist from indulging in drunk driving, avoid excessive speed,

and resist the temptation to drive recklessly so as to mitigate all incidences of road traffic crashes during the celebration.

The Corps Public Education Officer, @BisiKazeem who made this public, said that the Corps Marshal, Dr Boboye Oyeyemi has directed Commanding Officers across board to double their efforts by ensuring massive deployment of Officers and Men for enhanced visibility,

adequate traffic control, and maximum enforcement of all COVID-19 protocols amongst motorists.
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