Authors Jim O'Shaughnessy
Ironies of Luck https://t.co/5BPWGbAxFi— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) March 14, 2018
"Luck is the flip side of risk. They are mirrored cousins, driven by the same thing: You are one person in a 7 billion player game, and the accidental impact of other people\u2019s actions can be more consequential than your own."
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
just reread this, and I highly recommend reading it if you haven't
2/ The author, Paul Kalanithi, was a neurosurgeon and writer who got a stage IV lung cancer diagnosis when only in his mid-30s. He died at age 37 in 2015, but not before writing "When Breath Becomes Air."
It's filled with insights that perhaps only a dying man could see clearly
3/ “There is a moment, a cusp, when the sum of gathered experience is worn down by the details of living. We are never so wise as when we live in this moment.”
“If the unexamined life was not worth living, was the unlived life worth examining?”
4/ But, as I remembered from my first reading, it was his last passage that took my breath away. Here it is:
"Everyone succumbs to finitude. I suspect I am not the only one who reaches this pluperfect state. Most ambitions are either achieved or abandoned; either way,
5/ they belong to the past. The future, instead of the ladder toward the goals of life, flattens out into a perpetual present. Money, status, all the vanities the preacher of Ecclesiastes described hold so little interest: a chasing after wind, indeed."
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."
~Richard P. Feynman
Feynman is one of my heroes, a brilliant physicist who was also a renaissance man
2/ If you read any of his books or the books written about him, you'll see he had an amazing capacity to challenge not only conventional views and beliefs, but also his own as well. As I've mentioned in other threads, that's a really hard habit to acquire.
3/ One reason why it's so hard is that our brain's have some funny kinks that exist to give us a "kinder and gentler" view of reality and ourselves than is warranted. One such kink is the foundation of hindsight bias, where our brain rewires our "memories" to make them consistent
4/ with current conditions. And the sneaky part is, we genuinely believe that our current "memory" of what we thought in the past is accurate. One way to see just how true this is is to keep a handwritten journal of decisions and beliefs throughout time.
5/ If you can consistently record thoughts, decisions and beliefs over time, you'll quickly see that we are all "unreliable narrators." An unreliable narrator is a "narrator whose credibility has been seriously compromised.