Having reviewed the information provided by COG-UK, as well as the UK govt report here is my updated assessment regarding the new strain in the UK. 1/n

1. There is a substantial number of mutations relative to the previously prevalent strain, which is impressive, however viruses present such odd patterns. The number of mutations in the spike protein is worrisome primarily for the vaccine effectiveness.

2. It is generally rare that a new strain dominates at times of high prevalence but if on top of this there is rapid growth due to increased people circulation and contacts, something we saw in London, then even rare strains can dominate by chance without any selective advantage.

3. The strain has been around at least since September and has already been found in other countries in Europe and in Australia. However, so far we have not seen a similar expansion in other countries, which would have been expected if the transmissibility was indeed 70% higher.

4. There have been reassurances that the vaccine will not be affected but given the number of mutations, I would be a bit more reserved about this statement, but of course we all hope it is true.