I’ve been delighted to see the sudden surge in support for mandatory hotel quarantine (MHQ) in Ireland, with the aim of achieving zero covid. While it is, on balance, the best option, I fear that some commentators have underestimated the challenges. Here are some examples....

...1) MHQ is frequently framed as a temporising measure, with the aim of establishing quarantine-free travel bubbles with other zero covid regions. Not many countries have achieved zero community transmission. But in those that have, travel bubbles have been vanishingly rare...

...2) MHQ is super strict. The point of it is that it would allow Ireland to open up society again. If you miss cases in that context, you let infectious people into a country where socialising is the norm. The result is explosive outbreaks. In countries that have MHQ, you...

....don’t get exemptions except in the rarest cases. Not for funerals or sick relatives or graduations. Exemptions in most MHQ countries allow you out for a few hours at most on only the most compassionate grounds. If it’s too loose, it just doesn’t work.....

3) You still get occasional outbreaks and cases. The aim is for zero community transmission, not zero cases. If a covid+ve person in MHQ sneezes on a surface enroute to their room for example, you could get fomite transmission to a staff member. Quarantine hotels in themselves...