To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!

3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.

4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.

5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)