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Mollyycolllinss Authors Michael Mina

7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
Michael Mina
Michael Mina
@michaelmina_lab
NOTE:

If you see papers/media that show very low sensitivity for rapid Ag tests (i.e. 30%-60% sensitivity) the report is most likely making a common mistake:

Comparing a test meant to detect viable virus to a test that can detect minuscule amounts of RNA is a mistake.

1/x

PCR RNA stays around long after live virus is cleared

So if you see a paper that shows very low sensitivity, ask:

"Are they comparing rapid antigen tests to "anytime" PCR RNA positivity? (Especially studies asking about sensitivity among asymptomatics)

2/x

To interpret this, you should know that only 25%-40% of the time someone is PCR positive are they infectious w live virus.

So... even a test that is 100% sensitive for live virus should only show a 25%-40% sensitivity against PCR among asymptomatic people.

3/x

(For various more epidemiologically complicated reasons having to do with the growth or decay rate of the epidemic, the sensitivity range is actually more like 30% - 60%... but that's for another tweet sometime)...

But to interpret studies of rapid antigen tests...
4/x

Simply put... If you see reports of rapid antigen tests "only" 30% - 60% sensitivity in asymptomatics (vs PCR) - you should think:

"Great! That could well be an exceptional test with sensitivity as high ~905-100% sensitive for likely contagious virus - and its rapid!"

5/x
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