Isaac Newton: A brilliant scientist, a terrible investor

How Issac Newton lost $4 million due to the first stock market bubble in history and insider trading

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1/ Sir Isaac Newton is considered one of the most influential scientists of all time and a key figure in the scientific revolution.

He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer, theologian, and author.

2/ The most prominent part of his work was the formulation of the laws of motion and the law of gravity.

However, his most prominent failure was losing an entire fortune in the first stock market bubble in history, the South Sea Company in 1720.

3/ Newton was usually a cautious investor.

Before 1720 most of his investments were in safe and reliable securities, various government bonds that delivered a regular stream of income, and shares in a few of the larger companies on the exchange, including South Sea Co.

4/ Newton began in 1720 with stocks and bonds worth approximately £32,000 (close to $6-million in current U.S. dollars).

The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable

How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements

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1/ One day you receive an unsolicited newsletter from a stockbroker in Baltimore.

It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.

A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.

2/ The next week, you get another newsletter from the stockbroker, this time with a tip about a stock that will fall.

And next week, the stock craters.

3/ Ten weeks go by, and each week you receive a tip about a stock that will go up or down.

Every time the prediction comes true.

4/ On the 11th week, you get a solicitation to invest your money with the Baltimore stockbroker for a hefty commission, justified by his successful predictions.

That sounds like a great deal, right?

Companies to AVOID

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Some tips by Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, on which companies to avoid investing in

1. Hottest stock in the hottest industry, with nothing but hope and thin air to support them (MJ stocks in 2017, internet stocks in 2000, electric vehicles in 2020)

Deteriorating balance sheet.

When analysts predict double-digit growth forever, the industry goes into decline.

2. Product/service, not protected by patent or niche, easy to be replicated by competitors, especially in a high-growth industry.

3. The "Next Something"

Everyone wants the next $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOG

Most likely you won't find a company to replicate their business with that success.

4. Diversification = companies wasting capital on foolish acquisitions, in new sectors they do not understand, and in companies that are overvalued.

Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

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1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.

2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.

4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.