I've taught thousands of people make smart decisions without getting lucky.

Here is a thread on 5 of the biggest reasons we fail to make effective decisions.

1. We’re unintentionally stupid

We like to think that we can rationally compute information like a computer, but we can’t. Cognitive biases explain why we made a bad decision but rarely help us avoiding them. Better to focus on these warning signs something is about to go wrong.

Warning signs you’re about to do unintentionally something stupid: You’re tired. You’re emotional, in a rush, distracted, operating in a group, or working with an authority figure.

The rule: Never make important decisions when you’re tired, emotional, distracted, or in a rush.

2. We solve the wrong problem.

The first person to state the problem rarely has the best insight into the problem. Once a problem is thrown out on the table however, our type-a problem solving nature kicks in and forget to ask if we’re solving the right problem.

Warning signs you’re solving the wrong problem: You let someone else define the problem for you. You’re far away from the problem. You’re thinking about the problem at only one level or through narrow lenses.

The rule: Never let anyone define the problem for you.