A thread.

Earnings Trades Simplified.

Earnings announcements are public announcements that display a company’s earnings, or lack thereof. As the earnings announcement gets closer, implied volatility tends to increase. After earnings are announced,...

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the uncertainty of what will happen diminishes, and usually we see a rapid decrease in implied volatility because of it. Because of this phenomena, we tend to stick to premium selling strategies when it comes to earnings plays. We can take advantage...

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of the implied volatility crush by selling premium prior to the announcement, and buying it back after the announcement.

Earnings trades are not for everyone, as they involve high amounts of uncertainty and random movements.

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Why Trade Earnings -

-Increase number of occurrences, many trades available so increases of our probability of profit.

-High IV opportunities

-Short term Binary event leading to drastic volatility crush.

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Factors to consider when placing earnings trade -

1. Expected Move
2. When to place trade
3. Historical Moves
4. Strategies based on market conditions

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The battle all $XRP holders were waiting for. I’m sure lots of holders will be debating whether to sell off this news... a few

and @bgarlinghouse will have anticipated this decision by @SEC_News for years, in which time they’ve built out an extremely experienced exec team who are poised and ready for this legal battle to commence.

has led a great PR narrative over the last year, pressing hard for reg clarity in the US via media and threatening to up sticks and move @Ripple overseas. Have the SEC played into his plan to force regulatory clarity that may not have otherwise came quick enough?

has shareholders who will expect certain growth in certain timeframes. Has Brad dangled the right carrot to get their attention by talking about leaving the US? Will this suit get legal clarity for $XRP quicker than waiting for industry wide clarity?

If I can work that out, I’m sure he can.

This isn’t just a small startup, it’s a global company with extremely reputable board members, partners and investors, who will also add pressure to the SEC’s case. Take @yoshitaka_kitao in Japan for example.

One of the many paradoxes of trading in markets is that - for a given period of time - strategies that are ‘right’ in the broader time context can be absolutely catastrophic in other times. Indeed, careers of one or two currently lauded by FinTwit and the wider financial media

were made by doing exactly the wrong thing at the right time for just long enough before the cycle changed back again.

* The market constantly changes its reward structure (i.e. what approaches it rewards)
* It can be relied upon that the variance exhibited in the future on

data that does not yet exist will exceed that which is observed on historical or contemporary data.

With these two points in mind, it is no wonder that the overwhelming majority of the ‘turtles’ do not make it to the sea from their hatching places. (To take from the great

Dennis/Eckhart experiment of the early /mid 1980’s)

The ‘turtles’ I refer to are new entrants to markets with outrageously good technical qualifications.

I believe that as a member of rare club of quant traders who have traded in three consecutive decades I have earned the

right to say that our education standards for preparing people for markets has shifted way too far towards the ‘edge’ being related to manipulating large amounts of data quickly rather than actual alpha.
This is why 99/100 advertised ‘Quant Trader’ roles - to the extent that

Important update regarding the 'Trades I liked' chart:

I'M GOING NAKED 😱

Don't worry, there is method behind the madness 😉 This is a thread, grab a coffee or a glass of wine. Or you could just have an Irish Coffee instead, cover all bases😊

I used to take trades all the time off various levels & vwaps. All these give off some great trades! However more recently, the majority of my trades have been off the naked bars. Not a lot beats trading wicks for me, it's a simple setup that repeats all day long!

As Matt used to say in the room "If you're not using something, why the fuck is it on your chart"? I found myself thinking the same thing tonight when explaining my chart to someone.

Now altho I haven't been taking that many trades off levels or vwaps, I still want to know where they are. E.G. If I'm long & I can see we're going to run into the PSH (Previous Session High) or Day 3 VWAP, I'll think abt adding-on (to bring target below) or killing trade there.

Context is so important. The 15m chart with the levels and vwaps on give me what I need to see (the overall picture with where the potential road blocks for the day will be). For the 1m chart, I don't actually need them on there.