THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

A THREAD

Topic: Why triple straddle has no real benefit.

A triple straddle is essentially an ATM Straddle & one or two step away straddle on either side. The position is almost neutral strategy just like any other neutral straddle or strangle.

1/

We can also view the position as an ATM straddle, a strangle & inverted strangle.

For example

Nifty: 14700

Triple straddle: 14600,14700,14800

Another view:

14700 straddle
14800-14600: strangle
14600-14800: Inverted strangle

2/

So the real question is what is the advantage of an inverted strangle over it's otm counterpart?

The answer is none.

They both have same premiums/theta. Only that slippages will be high in inverted strangle when we do the required adjustments plus liquidity issue.

3/

So isn't it better that instead of a triple straddle, we can just do ATM Straddle & 2* OTM strangle.

So in the above eg. the position will be

14700 ATM straddle
2* 14800-14600 otm strangle.

Same premium received, similar range just that there's no nuisance of ITM options.

4/

The question arises:

Why trade in an ATM straddle & 2* OTM Strangles? Why over-complicate?

Options are in itself a complicated instrument. Wouldn't it be better to stick to one straddle or a strangle & adjust accordingly?

Lesser the strikes, more there will be clarity.

5/

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/

Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

4/

I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

5/

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

Q: Sir why call option premiums are higher the put?

A: It usually happens when there is big difference between spot & future.

Example

BN Spot: 35110
BN Future: 35300
BN Synthetic Future: 35150

It depends on our perception of what is ATM & accordingly match the calls & puts.

AN ESSENTIAL THREAD ON OPTION ADJUSTMENTS

Adjustments can be done in variety of ways & depends totally at the discretion of the trader. To get a clear mind we need to know the following:

1) What to follow,
2) How to make the adjustment,
3) When to make the adjustment. (1/5)

1) We need a way to measure the imbalance created by a delta move in an option strategy. We can measure through premiums, distance from index or delta of greeks (i personally use delta). So basically whatever way of measure we use, both sides should be equal in it. (2/5)

2) Adjustment can either be done by selling extra quantity of profitable side, buying the quantity of losing side or shifting both the sides. I personally shift the sides because with extra quantities our Gamma gets imbalanced & the risk increases if market reverses. (3/5)

3) While the first 2pts are objective, when to make an adjustment is totally subjective. It can be fine tuned through experience. It also depends upon what strategy u are using. For a short strangle the adjustment required is faster than a ratio spread or an IC. (4/5)

Straddle/strangle require faster adjustments because they are more vulnerable to delta or IV spike. Any other strategies like ratio spreads, ironfly, butterfly have some bought option, which can negate the spikes for a while. So we need a defined system as to WHEN to adjust.(5/n)

Three things which will make a difference in Your trading Results.

A thread-

1. Clarity- When the mind is free from fear and ego

The first step to successful trading is to be clear about everything you do.

BUT, the reality is that most traders don't even know what they are doing.

And because of this-

They don't have any goals.
They don't have any Trading plan
They don't know what is suitable for them
And the list goes, on and on.

If you are among the people as described above, don't worry, There is nothing wrong with you, almost 90% of Traders are like that.

So, what do you have to do to get CLARITY in your Trading-

Find one style that is suitable to your personality and double down on it.

Why?

In this world where we have plethora of information just one click away, most people are distracted and see a Glowy thing every time they go over the social media.

They Find something new every now and then, jumping from one strategy to another, searching for Holy grail.

A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %

gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%

A Thread on~ O V E R T R A D I N G

Sitting and observing the numbers flicker on the screen might be very exciting.

But have you ever felt like you might've done better? Or you're just too tired of waiting that you punch an order right in?

That's a Bad Idea.

So, Let's understand the reasons behind it and try to find a way out.

1. Not having a trading plan makes you clueless.
Your impulses start to take control of you.

2. Having a trading plan; But still taking impulsive/ random trades.
Because of adrenaline rush or gambling instinct.

3. Revenge trading
When you try to force a trade in order to recover from a previous loss.