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Saved by @Shubham51ngh

Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-

 What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.
How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.
One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his
level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,
Trader knight says nifty is already at 13550 , Rahul says in order to be sure he lost his trade.

So, this is story of many Traders out their.

How to get rid of this Analysis Paralysis-

1. You want to get right on every trade.
This is the biggest problem because of which you are going into this loop of checking all the boxes which weren't even in your list.

Ask yourself why you want to be right every time?

Even when you know you can make big money even when you are right 30-40% of the time.
Whenever we have a setup, the first thing we can start telling to ourselves is that “this is going to be a losing trade and I am going to get stopped out on this” . We EXPECT to lose on this trade but we don’t HOPE to.
There is a difference between expecting and hoping. We HOPE to win on this trade but we don’t expect to. When we lose, we are ok as we expect and prepare for it.

When we do win, we give a pat on our shoulder since we expected to lose. Tomorrow we will start all over again
– again expect to lose but hope to win.

Think about it, only you have the answer to this problem.

2. KISS- Keep it simple stupid, Its not necessary that only a complex system will make money , simple systems are less prone to the analysis paralysis problem.
3. You don’t have much experience (if you are a dicretionary trader) or you have not backtested your strategy, because of which you may face this analysis paralysis problem.

4. You are afraid of losing money, this is one of the biggest reason traders have this analysis paralysis
There could be many reasons you are fearing losing-
1. You are trading with scared money.
2. You are trading too big.

Thanks for reading till here.

Cheers,

TRADER KNIGHT

More from Trader knight

Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A thread on Trend-lines


// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.


// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
FEAR - It’s the re-experience of failure in advance.

Many traders face the issue of Not entering in trades because of fear.

A thread on How to pull the trigger when the opportunity knocks.


Lets First start from knowing the cause of this "FEAR" of pulling the trigger.

A traders goes through many phases before becoming Profitable.

The first phase is the " APUN HI BHAGWAN HAI" phase-

When we first begin Trading, we don’t know any concepts, we don’t know about the risks , the dangers.

So we start trading, and like most guys by beginners luck we start making good, we start to calculate how much money we will make in next 1yr, 5 yrs, Greed start to Hop in.


We get introduced to Various instruments, F&O, LEVERAGE.

We take big positions as we don’t have any FEAR cause we haven't seen those bad phases yet.

Now we get the Big blow, account down -50%, or in many cases wiped out.

The first phase ends here.


Now we know How the market can kick our ass, we now know the risk that comes with those big positions.

"THE LEARNING PHASE"-

Now we know that we were just lucky initially and now we have to learn why we get those losses, so we start learning concepts , fundamental, Technicals.
TRADING , LIFE
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A THREAD ON SL, TSL AND RE-ENTRIES-


WHERE TO PUT THE SL-

1. NEAREST PIVOT/SWING POINTS-

Normally I use this method for placing sl, In this method we use swing point for placing the SL.

As normally the stock would not try to go below previous swing point if it is to go in our direction.


2. ATR method-

Sometimes the Stock do not have any nearest pivot at time of buy, So we use this method as it gives us a level on basis of current volatility of the stock.

I use 1.5 ATR away sl , say the ATR at point of entry is 30, so I place sl
1.5 X, or 45 rs away from entry

In below example the entry is 120, ATR=5, SL= 1.5X ATR= 7.5 OR 113.

Nearest pivot was too far away, that’s why this method is used in these cases.


4. Anchor candles-

Anchor bars are those which have extreme Volume, gaps or wide Ranges.

Here, we place our sl below those candles which has the above characteristics.
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A mega thread, this contains some of my popular threads which may help you in your trading.

Thanks for reading :)


Pyramiding


Don't change your trading


Trendlines


Scaling in-out
TECHNICALS , TRADING1 , TA NOTES

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Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!


Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish
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James Mishra
James Mishra
@rishmishra
(1/25) A number of Silicon Valley investors are putting their money and influence into a campaign to gaslight rape victims into not seeking medical treatment

despite the warnings of top law enforcement officials

and NOBODY is talking about this.

(2/25) First, a little about me. I used to be a licensed sexual assault crisis counselor, counseling victims admitted to one of three Minneapolis emergency rooms.

After I'd speak to the victim, they'd receive a medical exam from a Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (SANE).

(3/25) During the exam, DNA and other evidence is collected with a "rape kit" to optionally be used in a civil or criminal case.

(4/25) But collecting evidence is not the ONLY reason to receive an exam.

The victim may also receive:
- counseling (hello!)
- treatment for (potentially invisible) injuries
- medications like Plan B and emergency antiretroviral therapy for HIV prophylaxis.

(5/25) Leda Health, a startup cofounded by Madison Campbell and Liesel Vaidya, is raising money to sell "do-it-yourself" rape kits that wouldn't require a hospital visit

which is possibly the most HARMFUL startup idea that I have ever heard of.
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antifa.drone
antifa.drone
@antifa_drone
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,


You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.


If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet
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Aditya Trivedi
Aditya Trivedi
@itsAdityaT
Most of the successful traders here are option sellers.

Ever wondered why?

Why we have chosen option selling?

Find our below

1: Being wrong and still making money.

We as option sellers can be wrong with our market view and still end up making money because of the power of theta decay and adjustments to some extent.

Adjustments work better as get closer to expiry since decay is the highest.

2: Theta decay

The biggest reason and one of the prime reasons is the theta decay.

Option sellers always have an advantage because the as time passes, the option premium falls even if the underlying instrument doesn't move.

3:Playing directional view

Option selling also enables us to take a directional view. In fact, directional view along with theta decay makes it a solid combination.

Debit spreads and credit spreads works great for a directional view.

4: Playing Neutral view

We can make money in option selling even if the market doesn't move as the otm options will go to 0 with the help of theta decay. It's the most fascinating thing.

This is what attracted many into option selling.
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Few important points on Iron fly stategy

This is fixed loss🔴 defined stategy ,so you are aware of your losses . You know your risk ⚠️and breakeven points to exit the positions.
Risk is defined , so at psychological🧠 level you are at peace🙋‍♀️

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4. No need to hold this till expiry day .

5.Exit it one day before expiry or when you see more than 2% within the week.
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https://t.co/MYDgWkjYo8 have R:2R so over all it should be good.

8. If you are able to get 6% return monthly ,it means close to 100% return on your capital per annum.
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X : Our executive team is concerned that we need to up our game in order to out innovate Amazon.
Me : Do you map?
X : Yes
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X : No. What's that?
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Me : Long story, all to do with how space has meaning. To keep it short, maps help people to focus on user needs, the components involved, to communicate missing components and scenario play ideas like staff becoming robots.


Me : They’re also good for measuring and managing capital flow, making investment decisions, removing bias and getting rid of duplication.
X : I don’t see how that helps with innovation?


Me : Well, innovation is a tricky word because we use it to describe many things. If you’re talking about differentiation with the adjacent unexplored then you’re experimenting in the “uncharted” space e.g. immortality with magic provided by the special custom built kettle.


X : That sounds like nonsense.
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Jig's Patel
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@jigspatel1988
What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTION LEARNING , OPTIONSELLING
Suchi Sharma
Suchi Sharma
@Suchi_sharma_
#THREAD
1.Meenakshi Amman Temple(472ft High)also called as Meenakshi Sundareswarar is a famous Hindu temple located on the southern bank of Vaigai River in temple city of Madurai, #TamilNadu.It is dedicated to Parvati(Meenakshi)& her consort Shiva(Sundareswarar). @LostTemple7


2.Madurai Meenakshi Sundareswarar temple was built by King Kulasekara Pandya (1190-1216 CE).This popular temple visits over 15000 visitors daily & around 25000 on #Friday !Friday sees the most number of devotees visit the temple with the number going as high as +25,000.


3.Meenakshi Temple also hosts an annual festival called Meenakshi Thirukalayanam that is held in April. A celestial wedding of the god and goddess marks the end of the festival. About 1 million devotees visit the temple during this festival.


4.the temple has been tagged as one of the seven wonders of India along with stunning Architecture.The temple is built using Dravidian South Indian style of architecture, and is one of the most impressive temple structures in South India.


5.The principle deity here is MEENAKSHI, a form of Goddess Parvati. The idol of the goddess is carved in emerald hued stone. The Meenakshi idol has 3 breasts as Meenakshi was born with three breasts and was blessed that the 3rd breast would vanish once meets right man of her life
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Mitesh Patel
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@Mitesh_Engr
Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.
BNF , MPATELOPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTIONSLEARNING


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