BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

I'm having difficulty seeing the need for any other currency in the world other than G$.

If it works, and it is decentralized, then why would we need more than one global-reach currency?

If it does the job perfectly, then why do we need another?

 I don't mean there won't be others. What I mean is that maybe Crypto UBI will be like the existing non-democratic crypto market ranking. There will be a first-place market cap amount, and exponential decay to the #2, #3, #4, etc.
This is in contrast to the simplistic view where we assume there will be X systems and they all have more or less the same abstract Y market cap or reach, and they all add up to an integrated system with X*Y market cap.
All you have to do is design the controls the way they want to be designed. If you don't introduce some unneeded damage in it, then there won't be the need to come up with another system that fixes the damage and actually does complete "the system" that we will use.
E.g. Bitcoin would have worked, except it introduced the damage that is Proof-of-Work, which means it is unusable and will be replaced by Ethereum, which will use PoS, thus fixing the damage.
From the GoodDollar simulation page, and from public statements from the people in the project, the GD project can be seen as a long-term project, in the 2020 planet-melting sense of long-term, which is not that long.
The success of GoodDollar depends on US Dollars. GoodDollar is animated by the previous currency construct, which has a hegemonic hold on people's imaginations (earned through a realpolitik effort by imperialism, war, etc.)
GoodDollar takes the old-world money and uses it as a referral to the money system that's going to replace it. It uses the story known as "Compound Interest" (a math trick that mesmerizes humans for some reason) to suck up legitimacy from a nondemocratic currency system to itself
Whereas compound interest (aka "permanent funds") were deployed before, and they are the technology behind the Quatinga Velho pilot by @ReCivitas, they were deployed as a means to achieve financial sustainability *in old-world money* to these UBI projects.
What GoodDollar is doing, as a "Web3" project, is reinventing money. The compound interest engine is, superficially, used to "pay" for people's Universal Basic Income in old-world money legitimacy that's proxied through a "crypto" (cryptographic & "pseudo") currency.
However, the only difference between a pseudo-currency that can technically function as a non-pseudo one is legitimacy. The pseudoness is not technical, but cultural, "legal", social.

All religions are fake upon their founding.
GoodDollar is using compound interest to produce a democratic currency.

In other words, GoodDollar is using one of the most powerful cultural spells we have ever invented as a perpetual engine that syphons legitimacy from the old nondemocratic monetary system to a democratic one
And so, GoodDollar depends on the deposits of US Dollars to get started doing its magic. Once the magic kicks in, more and more US Dollars will be donated to the fund, which is not controlled by anyone. And once "all" US Dollars are in it, then it's over.
At that point, the GoodDollar currency is the only currency that's moving around. And it is a democratic, UBI currency. It becomes what people consider "money." And nondemocratic currencies that are locked into their reserves can be forgotten, or even abolished.
Imagine the speed at which people will cast away these disgusting "fiat" (debt-based, non-UBI, capitalist) currencies and switch loyalty to UBI.

Of course, "conservatives" (including "financial conservatives") won't do that, because they are stuck in a racist, classist past.
But since the US Dollar is like every other "fiat" (debt-based, capitalist) currency in the world, its normal functioning has led to its accumulation by extremely skilled sociopaths who can pose as "good" people. The "billionaires" (now, trillionaires).
Not all billionaires are evil, but they /are/ billionaires, meaning there's something wrong with them. The exceptions just prove the rule.
And since we need US Dollars (used as a stand-in for all "fiat", debt-based, capitalist, deprivation-oriented money) to start GoodDollar's legitimacy-siphoning scheme, that means we need billionaires to donate to the fund. Our donations mean jack shit.
For a million (1,000,000) people to donate 1 billion dollars, each person has to part with $1,000, which they don't have. One (1) billionaire can fund what 1,000,000 people can't.

This strategy is absolutely dependent on rich people getting on board, if it is to cover the globe.
The only reason this is a long process is that rich people are evil and/or stupid and/or damaged in some other way. Otherwise, they could think about it for five minutes and just get rid of their money and dump it into the GoodDollar DAO-managed fund.
We don't need more than one UBI currency that implements this strategy. What we need is one currency that implements this strategy correctly, and no one will be able to surpass GoodDollar's approach. GoodDollar is what we are going to get w.r.t. that strategy.
Of course, there *will* be thousands of Crypto UBI currencies. But most Crypto UBI currencies won't use the "fiat reserve" approach. They will just be like every other community or local currency that has ever existed, and like most other cryptocurrencies: issue and use.
Reserve-less currencies will have the value of the community, and their "market cap" distribution probably will be far more even, because it is capped by region. These currencies may be global reach but the user base is not designed to be "everyone." It's like websites.
Or multiplayer games. Each game or site has a community of members. The website has global reach, but the "topic" of the game or site does not actually scale. Global reach is different from global scale (i.e. institutional reach). Global scale means the topic is "person."
Dailycoin has global reach but it has global scale problems. Its topic is "person" -- it is an institution -- but it is unreadable by most people. It is too alien. Maybe in 100 years.
Also the implementation is experimental. My *theory* is that a single identity oracle can literally cover the globe -- just like Facebook serves and identifies a billion people+ -- but I'm not actually sure of this and I certainly can't produce a proof of that.
So it is possible that Dailycoin needs the identity oracle to be a federated system controlled by a DAO, just like GoodDollar is going to do.
But my point is, there seems to be no point in duplicating GoodDollar.
You can create a different currency for a different community or a different topic. But there is only one globe and only one human species. So if that's your scale, you need only one implementation that is robust. If it is robust and a public good, then it's done.
Nobody goes dicking around in a Star Trek world suggesting that the Federation be replaced by a hundred of overlapping and competing Federations for fault-tolerance.
That doesn't mean it's bad to compete. More is always good. The point is, we don't need competition. My impulse is to contribute to the thing that's doing it right if that's not going to create a vulnerability in the ecosystem of things.
That's what it means to say that blockchain is a computing substrate that allows for the implementation of institutions. GoodDollar *would* be fundamentally vulnerable, and we *would* need redundant implementations, if we did not have Ethereum.
We need to SWARM rich people, especially very rich people, to stake into GoodDollar (GoodStake or GoodReserve).
But we have time to do that. GoodDollar has several years to develop all of the contract infrastructure, the DAO, etc.

Not too much time tho because the planet is dying.
The force that's destroying the planet IS debt. It is the competitive drive itself, which is generated by "fiscal/financial conservatism". As Charles Eisenstein noted, what we are doing is destroying nature and converting it into money. (Debt money).
That's why you need to read Charles Eisenstein's books. They are all free to read online. Read Sacred Economics and The More Beautiful World Our Hearts Know Is Possible.
GoodDollar has ONE problem, which is the initial token issuance problem.

Bitcoin laundered its early-mining rewards by way of the "Proof-of-Work" myth: the work of computers that privileged people own is confused with their own work, due to Proprietarianism.
The Seigniorage problem is the fundamental problem of "who is the first owner of a coin." It is an unresolvable problem. The only way to "solve" it is to issue it equally to everyone, which is also impossible because new people are continuously minted into existence.
Since it is somewhat unlikely that the GoodDollar token won't appreciate in value, the usual accusations of "scam" and of "privilege" will be thrown around. But then again, that's inevitable. Of course that the reactionaries will use that as a way to smear the project.
But it is guaranteed that detractors will use a willful misunderstanding of how the GoodDollar system works to attack it: that some people earned like 100 G$ a day in the early days whereas some went into the reserve and bought 5000000 G$ for $500.
The best thing we could do really would be a fundraiser to buy out the entire flat slope of the GoodDollar Bancor curve, and it will generate I don't know 50 billion G$ or something like that, and then we just burn it all.
My point is that the flat part of the Bancor curve, the early part, is like the "Ceremony" part of some Zero-Knowledge protocols like ZCASH: it is a pollution, an externality. But in the case of the Bancor curve vs. the Seigniorage problem it is a cultural pollution.
But this is just a story. It only really has relevance in cultural terms. In functional terms who gets the first G$s is absolutely irrelevant in contrast to what this existing system is doing -- the system that G$ and Crypto UBI and monetary democracy are trying to change.
I know GoodDollar has a part in its equations that's designed to keep the token price in check, and the parameters seem to be chosen carefully so that G$ can be an actual global currency and progress as such, with an appropriate timespan for success in that scope.
Maybe the fact that it is a long-term process is sufficient to use the sands of time to minimize the attack surface via moral panics by reactionaries. On the other hand, the Bancor curve is (usually?) an exponential, so it seems that at some point it does take off.
The curve has 3 states: 1, flat. 2, middle, 3, end. The end part is never reached, because it is exponential. But there's usually a visible transition from the flat part, which has like a ridiculously low asset price vs. the middle, where the "tension" with the end part develops
Unless I'm missing something, this is going to "happen" at some point. And lots of bitching and noise might happen. We don't want that. We want billionaires to buy the reserve because GoodDollar is the system we need and it's going to solve the entire thing for us.
Another thing that would be great would be the ability in GoodDollar for one to donate their own G$ into a pool that goes into the next UBI payment period.

So if I have 5 million G$ that I bought for $500 I can just donate them to the next G$ distribution cycle.
That is the same as burning G$. The cultural and monetary results are almost the same (99.99%).

Think about it: a healthy monetary system has no rich people. Only rich organizations, funds, institutions, charters, projects, initiatives, mandates. Not people.
The moment a healthy society with a monetary system has a person that has a lot of money, what that person does, being a healthy person in a healthy society, is to just get rid of it.
Personal ownership of money is incredibly stupid. Why do people even need money? Let money be an institutional thing. UBI is a way to push us towards a world where we all have more or less the same amount of money that is sufficient for us to live. As if money wasn't there at all
People walking around with personal money, to me, is like people carrying guns. This is the economic Wild West and all the men have economic guns. What we want to do is to create a world where people *genuinely* don't need to walk around economically armed.

More from Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹

Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
The US peoples could create an organization that issues a RENT token that is nominally worth 1 USD each of debt as a kind of bond to every homeowner so there is no excuse and you will not be making other people homeless.

The government can do this kind of thing very easily and in fact, every government is doing this, but if your government won't and you have the tech and the social climate to pull this off without being assassinated then you should do it because it would work.

Social debt can be redeemed by anyone, anytime. The origination mechanism of a token tells the story of whether it will be redeemed by society in an entirely volunteer fashion.

If a RENT token exists, you know that it was created by people to avoid other people being evicted. Then you can choose to honor it if (i) you can (iia) you think rent is legitimate or (iib) you think it's strategic to help pretend rent is legitimate (iii) you believe the issuer

Democratic, bottom-up currency creation is a technology that we must hand to people. It must be trivial to create tokens, and we must learn the power of volunteering *towards currencies*. This is an entire social language that's going to emerge.
SOCIETY
Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
Before I try to solve the GoodReserve vs. GoodStaking problem, which involves math and time and interest, let me solve something easier, which is all of modern politics.

Here's an example. When the pandemic was in the first wave here in Brazil, you could see lots of cultural noise about the fact that rich people were not dying because they got hospital care, whereas poor maids etc. were getting infected by rich people e.g. coming back from Italy.

Then, after a while, this story died. We "know" this now, but nothing happened.

When this sort of thing happens -- lots of noise, followed by normalization -- we are trained to think that that's *OUR* fault as cultural noisemakers.

IF ONLY WE MADE MORE NOISE, we think.

Why do we think that?

We think that because of all the times making noise worked.

Or did it? Did it actually work? Was it actually the noise that "changed" things?

Nope. The noise doesn't change anything.

EVER.

Here's how this works.
POLITICS
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Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
OK let me try math again.

GoodStaking: you invest X, like you would in a savings account. After many years it produces Y interest, of which Y/2 go to the reserve over time, and Y/2 becomes G$ that you own.

No, that's wrong. Jesus.

The entire Y goes into the reserve, and that generates a Z amount of G$.

Z/2 goes to people as UBI.

Z/2 goes to you.

OK, so I wasn't that far off.

If I donate a large amount of money to the reserve, what I am doing is emulating a large Y. I'm taking a ton of money that I *have* (so it would be a "principal" today, a X) and pretending it's like a Y of someone else that will do GoodStaking.

The money that I have is a small X. It will generate a small Y. Instead, I want to take my small X and pretend it's a large Y, which would originate from a large X. That I don't have. Because I'm poor.

So if I want to make the largest possible impact into the UBI reserve, to make a splash, and help it be noticed, I can take the small amount of money I have, the X I have, and pretend it's a Y of staking, and time warp it to the present and use the X to buy G$ from the reserve.
TRADING
Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
But you see you don't actually understand how lawmaking works there's this set of procedures and dates that BLEAAAARGHHHHHvomitvomit


Neoliberalism is an economic genocidal ideology predicated on maintaining capitalism, and capitalism is the impoverishment, oppression and death of poor people because that's the OBJECTIVE of capitalist ideology. It's a malthusian ideology.

Neoliberals are the original Alt-Right

Capitalism has ZERO todo with "markets vs. no markets," or "central planning vs. decentralization." That's *propaganda*. That's a diversion.

Capitalism is the NAME OF THE ABSENCE of any support for poor people. In capitalism, giving ANY power to poor people is a CRIME.

Capitalism has an *exception* to the strict forbiddance of giving any economic power to the 99%, and that is the concept of "Merit."

If you act as a SLAVE (wage slave), then you can get some crumbs to *temporarily* avoid your death. While you are mechanically useful.

These fucking Neoliberals which are 99% of the Democratic Party in the US are all POSING as nice people. They are not. They are all sociopaths.

This economic fascism is so thoroughly normalized in the US that nobody has a concept of what capitalism is.
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Fabiana Cecin \U0001f3f4 \U0001f339
Fabiana Cecin 🏴 🌹...
@fabianacecin
This is still the dark ages of software development. I don't mean that in the common nonsense sense of "methods," but of perception and of goals.

As a whole, this behaves exactly like a primitive age does: all effort spent solving the same problems over and over again.

A "technology," if it means anything, is something you do that stops you from solving the same problem over and over again. You can spend J energy solving every instance of problem X as it manifests into infinity, or you can spend J energy abolishing X through a "technology."

Capitalism rewards every industry, not only "tech," to never abolish a good X. Instead, it encourages us to create some machinery to sell temporary remedies for getting rid of every instance of X as it crops up everywhere.

If "technology is what matters," then we must change the social system and culture we live in, because that culture is the greatest meta-machine for mass suppression of technology that has ever been invented.

People's instincts, individually and collectively, are always to correctly decide when to erase instances of problem generators, and when to attack the problem generators themselves. The current system and culture eliminate 99%+ of that wisdom. It's massively stupid.
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Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety


Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.

I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"


Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,

I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
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M Lebon
M Lebon
@LongTplexTrader
So..had a great conversation last night with older investment types, old friends whom I traded with/against and managed money against or for. Age diff from me is > 10+ years so the takes were interesting but the common theme was a little disturbing (depends on your view)

Was looking at the landscape of the world & quite concerned where we are (I do not share your optimism for a shinny happy future). I am a Bond guy + Cycles & my view approach is ALWAYS what is the worst that can happen (that is how I was taught to trade & manage money) As a Bond

Money manager you never every want to apologize for a negative year, most people don't understand bonds can lose lots and lots and lots of money. So my view on life is always negative & fuck you approach.

The others are similar but have more equity exposure and FX, one other is really good via commodities so the conversation was from a top down look with some bottom up approaches. So.....after looking at the notes of the great conversation this is how it looked:

basically the world changed 2007/2008 especially North America. The GFC set in motion financial engineering games and here we are. The issues pre this (2000 to 2007) set ALL this up so lots of blame to go around but to pin point certain things the real problems started with QE &
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Sarang Sood
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@SarangSood
@javia_savan You answered it yourself 🙂
Adjustment cost is way too high for bnf. Sometimes bnf does exceed nifty in vol crush, but nifty overall is more consistent.
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Aditya Trivedi
Aditya Trivedi
@itsAdityaT
This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader


Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.


This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.
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Anon
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@AnonTrader21
A thread on getting intraday (any timeframe) data to excel without any coding. Limited to only last 60 days. Fetches from zerodha chart.

👇

1. Open the chart on zerodha web in chrome. Right click and select 'Inspect'. Click 'Network' as shown in this pic.


2. Right click on the last entry on the table you see and click 'copy as cURL (bash)'


3. Go to website https://t.co/f8rhwoGLUc and paste on the left box and click 'Run'

4. The output below candles written on right of box is the ohlc, volume and oi data. Copy and paste to excel.
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Ok, I'll hop on this Elizabeth Warren/Native American testing bandwagon (gently and non-politically).

I've been a @23andMe customer for a while, and have followed their ancestry updates closely.

All is more or less as expected....except for this bit about Native American.


The family is almost completely composed of Spanish peasants (from various regions) who emigrated, along with a massive wave in the late 19th-cent./early 20th-cent., to Cuba back when it was a booming economy (richer than Spain's) and worth emigrating to (Communism killed that).

Also, the native population of Cuba was annihilated early on---was the first place the Spanish colonized after all. Having a native background in Cuba would be like having the same in, say, Massachusetts, particularly if you're (say) mostly Irish. Just really, really unlikely.

(Note: the North African/Arab background is less mysterious. The Iberian peninsula was part of the Muslim world for centuries. It would be odd *not* to have some Arab/Middle Eastern background coming from Spain. Given the family is mostly from Northern Spain, it's small though.)

I have a Spanish passport, have been back to the ancestral villages in Spain, seen the church where my grandmother was baptized, my grandfather told me stories about growing up as the child of Spanish colonists in rural Cuba. The native bit just clashes with all the family lore.
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Finviz!! Finviz is a free website that I use to scan for stocks.

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Noah Smith
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1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

Educating local kids is good for the nation, but doesn't help a region much.

The way a university helps a region is through

4/Undergraduates usually leave town after graduation.

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Here's a paper showing that this is the main way universities increase a region's human capital:

5/Research also pulls in business investment.

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