1/ Happy to announce that we have submitted our #paper ‘Bayes Lines Tool (BLT) - A SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing’.

In this ⬇️thread⬇️, I will explain why our tool is that powerful for decision makers. #UnbiasedScience

2/ In the meantime, the submitted paper is available on the preprint platform @zenodo_org. Factual criticism is highly desired and encouraged. The publication itself presents a seminal Bayesian calculator, the Bayes Lines Tool (BLT). (Petje af, @waukema!) https://t.co/FEYvH3D0Gf
3/ The Bayes Line Tool (available on https://t.co/jIomSIxOd9) is able to back-solve disease #prevalence, test #sensitivity, test #specificity, and therefore, true positive, false positive, true negative and false negative numbers from official governmental test outcome reports.
4/ This is done by creating confusion matrices with four variables. Namely: TP, FP, TN, FN. In order to calculate the matrices, we need prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity as well as the number of people that got tested (within a given period) and the number of positives.
5/ The number of positives and the number of tests are given by the government. Prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity are unknown. So we assume any combination of them ranging from 0-99%. These three combinations can amount up to #millions of #combinations.
6/ Typically, we calculate with 7 million combinations. Of these 7 million combinations, only 1-100 usually match the numbers that the government gave us (e.g. TRUE Positives + FALSE Positives = amount of performed tests).
7/ For the 11 Jan 2021, 536,947 tests were performed, resulting in 56,733 reported positives. The confusion matrices contained 21 possible matches for that day, represented in the #columns. We have sorted the columns by ‘prevalence’, as marked in red.
8/ The prevalence in the UK is currently presumed to be 1,52% (https://t.co/DuF3YXRA9s). Given the fact that reported positives dropped by 43% since January 8, we are looking at a prevalence of around 3%, but definitely lower than 12%, leaving us with the following options:
9/ Looking at the bars will already give you a good #indication on the test result in the context of everyone else who got tested in the population. This means that the model tells us whether the test results are/were #relevant.
10/ In the next steps, I will show you how to figure out which event might most likely have been the one that occurred that day, figuring out the real TP/FP rate, test specificity and sensitivity and prevalence. For this, let’s take a look at the tests' sensitivity.
11/ In the UK antigen and PCR tests are used. Antigen tests have a sensitivity between .664 (66.4%) and .738 (73.8%) (https://t.co/9ySnEL8c0l). PCR tests about .842 (84.2%) (https://t.co/guYiZUwW87). PCR tests constitute the majority of tests that are used in the UK.
12/ We are consequently looking for a sensitivity value just below .842. #BINGO! By just getting the amount of performed tests and number of reported positives from the government, we can conclude the actual specificity, sensitivity, and prevalence.
13/ So on January 11th, the prevalence was most likely about 4%, the tests’ sensitivity about 80.5%, and the tests’ specificity about 92.5% (which is much lower than the claimed 98.9%: https://t.co/Pc4YxhiX07). The false-positive rate that day would consequently have been 68%!
14/ Let’s have a look at the calculated data that the Netherlands are providing.
15/ AFAIK, the #Dutch government did not make a recent comment about prevalence, but we can assume a similar one as in the UK. Also, the sensitivity should be in the range of 75-85%, leaving us with the following possible scenarios. Remark: note the low #specificities < 90%.
16/ The model’s outcomes are extremely valuable in that they can provide a decision-making tool for people in charge (i.e. #politicians, #physicians, #policymakers etc.) and support them in evaluating their strategy for fighting the disease. #COVID
17/ This time-series can be further back-solved by solving single events following the #exclusionprinciple and consequently receiving insights with respect to the tests’ specificity/sensitivity or the prevalence within the population.
18/ This method provides the light (i.e. better insights) for individuals, authorities and governmental agencies that are currently in the dark with measuring problems and often using imprecise prediction models.
19/ Furthermore, the outcomes can provide a better insight into the expectable operational effectiveness of the tests (specificity/sensitivity) compared to the theoretical commercial claims of the manufacturers (equipment, primers, probes, supplies etc.).

More from Dr. Simon ツ

1/: Avicenna was a Persian scientist, who lived 1000 years ago. He put two lambs in separate cages, which had the same health conditions. But only one lamb could see a wolf that was put in a third cage. The observations were astounding. (h/t @farmer_student) ⬇️a thread⬇️


2/: Both lambs were provided with the same feed. Also, the weight was exactly the same when the experiment started. Several months later, the lamb with sight on the wolf became cranky, restless, weak, and showed a significant weight loss and signs of poor development.

3/: The lamb that was under chronic stress as it was placed in a situation of constant apparent danger died eventually. 🐑🪦 In fact, the wolf did not pose a danger at all, but this was beyond the lamb's perception.

4/: This experiment showed that increased levels of the stress hormone cortisol have a bad impact on the metabolism of mammals. And 1000 years after this experiment, we are facing a similar situation again but with the difference that we are aware of the impact of stress.

5/: Currently, we are overwhelmed with medial and governmental propaganda with respect to a common cold virus (that might hypothetically be more lethal though) that doesn't do harm to the majority of the people. Extreme global measures are taken.
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
1/: The inventor of the corona PCR-Test @c_drosten is one of the #protagonists of the current crisis. He is known for involving himself in contradictions. In 2014, he gave a legendary #interview to @wiwo (https://t.co/jzTRh5Suhc) that I will address in this ⬇️short thread⬇️.


2/: The interview is significant because @c_drosten made totally sane statements back then that follow the principle of common sense. Considering his involvement in the "genesis of the current pandemic", his assertions appear in an entirely different


3/: In 2014, for instance, washing the hands was sufficient against being infected by coronaviruses. Several years he demands measures that destroy national economies and social life worldwide.


4/: Young @c_drosten also severely criticized the fact that Saudi Arabia used the PCR method to detect potential infections. From his point of view, that specific method could lead to many irrelevant cases. Nowadays, his view shifted his opinion towards 'collective punishment'.


5/: Whereas he demands "testing, testing, testing" nowadays and spreads panic and fear via (social) media, he heavily condemned that behaviour of Saudi media in 2014. On top of that, he expressed his concern that medial panic could increase the number of lab tests significantly.
Substantial analysis of @BenMarten regarding the mortality in Germany. Particularly noticeable is the "excess mortality" in December. Ben states that "lockdown deaths" could play an important role here. I would like to elaborate my thoughts on that. ⬇️Mini-Thread⬇️


Factor 1: Vitamin D deficiency.

Many people (especially elderly) have been locked in during the summer. Also the majority of holiday trips have been cancelled, leading to a lower 25(OH)D blood serum level as usual. The body can store vitamin D up to several months.


As vitamin D is a hormon that modulates the immune responses, we can assume that the lockdown measures had some adverse effect on our immune system. Especially elderly people in retirement homes must have been severely affected.

Factor 2: Loneliness

"Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who

Factor 3: Hyper Hygiene

Constant disinfections and high hygienic standards weaken the immune system. It gets literally "out of

More from Tech

1. One of the best changes in recent years is the GOP abandoning libertarianism. Here's GOP Rep. Greg Steube: “I do think there is an appetite amongst Republicans, if the Dems wanted to try to break up Big Tech, I think there is support for that."

2. And @RepKenBuck, who offered a thoughtful Third Way report on antitrust law in 2020, weighed in quite reasonably on Biden antitrust frameworks.

3. I believe this change is sincere because it's so pervasive and beginning to result in real policy changes. Example: The North Dakota GOP is taking on Apple's app store.


4. And yet there's a problem. The GOP establishment is still pro-big tech. Trump, despite some of his instincts, appointed pro-monopoly antitrust enforcers. Antitrust chief Makan Delrahim helped big tech, and the antitrust case happened bc he was recused.

5. At the other sleepy antitrust agency, the Federal Trade Commission, Trump appointed commissioners
@FTCPhillips and @CSWilsonFTC are both pro-monopoly. Both voted *against* the antitrust case on FB. That case was 3-2, with a GOP Chair and 2 Dems teaming up against 2 Rs.

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Master Thread of all my threads!

Hello!! 👋

• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.

• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.

• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃

1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR


2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING

Got these scanners from the following accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sanjufunda
3. @sanstocktrader
4. @SouravSenguptaI
5. @Rishikesh_ADX


3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4.


4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.

Everything covered in this thread.
1. Management
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
4. Examples
5. Videos on