The Premier League schedule can just about handle the games that have been postponed... so far.

But the league is on the brink of a fixture crisis, and the failure to entertaining agreeing curtailment / abandonment options may come back and bite them hard.

From the initial fixture build there were three Premier Lague catchup dates built in - the midweeks of March 2, April 20 and May 19.

However, these placeholders were primarily for teams which reached the Carabao Cup final and/or the FA Cup final.
Added to that, even without COVID postponements, if a PL team were to get the semis of the Champions League or Europa League and the final of both domestic cups there aren't enough spare midweeks to fit those games in.

Looking at you, Man City, Man United and Tottenham.
Now it looks like we have the added complication of Tottenham v Fulham being postponed.

If at least one of those clubs remains in the FA Cup through to Round 5, the game can only be played on March 2.

But it could get even more complicated.
If Tottenham reach the Carabao Cup final, they also have to rearrange (coincidentally) Fulham v Tottenham which is due to be played April 24.

If Spurs go far in the UEL and to the FA Cup final, they will have nowhere to play TWO matches before the season deadline of May 23.
Man City can just about manage things at the moment as they can play Everton on January 20 and Chelsea on an empty UCL RO16 week (they are paired with Chelsea in the UCL weeks) and Villa on March 2.

If the EFL semi cannot go ahead next week they also have nowhere to move games.
So this also feeds back into the Premier League clubs "kicking the can down the road" on a curtailment plan.

It's such a massive problem now because every club has their own vested interests again.

This should have been agreed in August with all teams on zero points.
Instead this is groundhog day, with every club having their own reason to fight a particular corner (more than they would have in August).

There is now the realistic prospect of being unable to play all 380 Premier League games by May 23, and it only looks like getting worse.
Other divisions have the chance of playing into June to get their seasons finished, but the Premier League and all other top flights must finish by May 23.

Even if UEFA allowed games through to May 30, that would still discount any club which reached a European final.
In short, clubs like Spurs COULD face the prospect of having to play two games in a midweek (as in September).

Sunday > Tuesday > Thursday > Sunday

And Spurs (and others) might have to do that in both April and May to get the games in.

But we may see more games off yet.
Additional note that this is only a problem for clubs in Europe. And the last two games have involved clubs in Europe.

There is no issue rearranging a game between clubs not in Europe, such as Aston Villa v Newcastle.
And I really need to improve the proof reading of my tweets.
Manchester City’s first-team squad has resumed training today in preparation for their match at Chelsea on Sunday. So that may release some pressure on the fixture list.

I'd suggest it's better than Everton v City is played on Jan. 20 to avoid other problems down the line.
It may well be of course that the PL will make sure both Everton and Man City get their FA Cup games played before rescheduling to Jan. 20.

That's because a postponed FA Cup game could only be played on Jan. 20 ahead of round 4 the following weekend.

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#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb

A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.

A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.

[thread]

I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (
https://t.co/rmVT8b5sFl).

Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.


Can we quantify match importance then?

Well, @FiveThirtyEight have given it a right good go and how they've done it is explained here: https://t.co/ObjB079Fjw

Their match importance rating ranges from 0 to 100 for a team.

In a game with a high match importance vs. a team with low match importance, a team's likelihood of winning increases: All else being equal, if match importance is 100 for the home team and 0 for the away team, the home team's odds of winning drop from Evens (50%) to 8/11 (58%).

If we look at the combined match importance ratings for both teams, tonight's game ranks 14th of the 317 matches with match importance ratings. Pretty important then!

Of our matches only the win against Bournemouth had a higher combined match importance than tonight's match:

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